MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Aug. 26

MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Aug. 26
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets, or moneyline bets on other games.

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American League Best Bet

Tampa Bay Rays +110 at Boston Red Sox -120

7:10 p.m. ET

This matchup of Al East Divisional rivals has huge implications for both teams, but more so for the streaking Rays, who lead in the wild card race. 

The Red Sox have a mathematical possibility of getting a wild card berth. But it's not realistic at this point.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a bet on Tampa Bay in this matchup.

  • The Red Sox are 1-12, losing 12 units on the moneyline, when playing against a contending playoff team with a winning percentage between 54% and 62% in the second half of this season.
  • The Red Sox are 4-12, losing 13 units on the moneyline, when facing an AL team scoring an average of 4.4 or fewer runs per game.
  • The Red Sox are 5-12, losing 10 units on the moneyline, when facing an AL team with a slugging percentage of .410 or lower in the second half of this season.

I am betting the Rays on the moneyline at +110 as offered at BetMGM.

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National League Best Bet

Pittsburgh Pirates +235 at Philadelphia Phillies -265

7:05 p.m. ET

The following situational betting angle uses the run line and supports the Philadelphia Phillies.

  • Betting on home favorites using the -1.5-run line priced no more than -190.
  • Our home favorite is taking on a foe whose bullpen was hammered for six or more runs in their previous game.
  • The foe has converted only 38% of their save opportunities on the season.

This set of parameters has earned a 55-19 run line record, good for 74% winning bets, and has produced a 27% return on investment over the past five seasons. 

I am going to the window betting the Phillies on the -1.5 run line at -130 as offered at DraftKings.

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Quick Pitches

These are some player prop bets to consider on today's schedule.

  • Bet the Phillies' Alec Boehm to hit a home run +560 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Phillies' Bryce Harper to get 2+ hits +190 at FanDuel.
  • Bet on the Yankees' starter Gerrit Cole Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -115 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Braves' starter Spencer Strider Over 1.5 earned runs allowed -155 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Orioles' Cedric Mullins to get 2+ hits +240 at FanDuel.

 

In the past 50 player prop bet picks, I have a 27-23 record, making $279 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,395 per $100 wager.

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