MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Oct. 3
Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
Interleague Best Bet
Philadelphia Phillies +110 at Houston Astros -120
8:10 p.m. ET
The Phillies got their offense rolling over the weekend, taking three of four from the Washington Nationals. They also got help from the Miami Marlins, who defeated the Milwaukee Brewers Sunday. That gives Philadelphia a two-game lead over the Brewers for the third wild-card spot with three games left to play.
In the new MLB playoff format, no extra games are played if there are ties at the end of the season. Instead, head-to-head records are first used to break the ties, and the Phillies own the tiebreaker over the Padres and the Brewers.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Over in this matchup.
- The Phillies are 24-10 Over, for 71% winning bets, following a win by four or more runs this season.
- The Phillies are 28-15-2 Over, for 65% winning bets, following a win in which their bullpen did not allow a run this season.
- The Phillies are 21-9 Over, for 70% winning bets, when on the road and playing the first game of a series over the past three seasons.
I am betting the Over as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
American League Best Bet
New York Yankees -145 at Texas Rangers +135
7:05 p.m. ET
A trip to Arlington, Texas, may just be the right thing for Aaron Judge to break the AL home record. The Rangers will be accommodating hosts, having lost five consecutive games and eight of their last nine games and allowing 48 runs, including seven home runs over the nine-game stretch.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting angles support a bet on the Over in this matchup.
- The Yankees are 25-13 Over following a five-game span in which they batted .200 or worse over the last two seasons.
- The Rangers are 25-11-1 Over in home games played in the second half of this season.
- The Rangers are 18-4-2 Over in home games facing a starter with an ERA of 3.25 and higher in the second half of this season.
I am going to the window betting the Over 8 runs +100 as offered at PointsBet Sportsbook.
Here are some player prop bets to consider today.
- Bet the Yankees' Aaron Judge to hit a home run +300 at BetRivers.
- Bet the Yankees' Giancarlo Stanton to record an RBI + 115 at FanDuel.
- Bet Phillies' Aaron Nola over 5.5 strikeouts –145 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Angels' Mike Trout to hit a home run +285 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Braves' Austin Riley to record a hit –215 at Caesars.
In the past 149 prop bet picks, I have a 68-81 record, making a profit of $529.20 per $20 pizza-money wager or $2,646 per $100 wager. Over more than five months, the results produced a 71% return on investment (ROI).
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