MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Oct. 4

Date IconLast Updated: Sep 28th, 2023
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MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Oct. 4
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As the season winds down, we're giving you MLB betting advice for a game and some player props. Be sure to keep coming back to for tips and picks once the MLB playoffs begin.


Interleague Best Bet

New York Yankees –165 at Texas Rangers +155

Game 2, 8:05 p.m. ET

The New York Yankees may celebrate two record-breaking achievements with one of them a near certainty to occur. Gerrit Cole should break the franchise record for strikeouts, set by Ron Guidry in 1978.

Cole comes into Game 2 of the doubleheader against the Texas Rangers with 248 strikeouts. So, with this first recorded strikeout in the second game of the doubleheader, he will own the record.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Over in this matchup. 

  • The Rangers are 23-9 Over in home games and facing an opponent that is batting no better than .255 in the second half of this season.
  • The Rangers are 23-17 Over in home games when facing a foe that averages seven or more strikeouts per game in the second half of this season.
  • The Rangers are 37-22 Over in home games when the total has been between seven and 8.5 runs this season.

I am betting the Over seven runs –110 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.


Quick Pitches

These are the player prop bets to consider on today's schedule.

  • Bet the Yankees' Aaron Judge to hit a home run in Game 1 +300 at BetRivers.
  • Bet Judge to hit a home run in Game 2 +300 at BetRivers.
  • Bet Phillies' Ranger Suarez over 3.5 strikeouts –115 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Phillies' Alec Bohm Over 1.5 total bases +150 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Marlins' Braxton Garrett Over 1.5 earned runs allowed –155 at DraftKings.

In the past 154 prop bet selections, I have a 69-85 record making a profit of $493 per $20 pizza-money wager or $2,465 per $100 wager. The results over more than five months have produced a 64% return on investment (ROI).