MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 15
Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
National League Best Bets
Cincinnati Reds +230 at St. Louis Cardinals -260
7:45 p.m. ET
The Cardinals have won three of their past four games and have a comfortable eight-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers in the National League Central.
Miles Mikolas will start today's game for St. Louis. He is 11-11 in 29 starts with a 3.42 ERA and 1.037 WHIP. However, he has been sensational at home, posting a 6-2 record in 14 starts with a 2.23 ERA and a .801 WHIP.
The Reds' offense has been terrible, batting .223 and scoring just 3.3 runs per game over the last seven games.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a bet on the Over in this matchup.
- The Reds are 48-32 betting the Over when facing teams that average .5 or fewer stolen bases per game.
- The Reds are 33-30 betting the Over when facing teams outscoring their opponents by .5 or more runs per game.
- The Reds are 17-9-1 betting the Over in road games against a divisional opponent.
I am betting Over the total of 8.5 runs as offered at BetRivers Sportsbook.
San Diego Padres -160 at Arizona Diamondbacks +140
7:40 p.m. ET
The San Diego Padres currently hold the third and final NL Wild card berth, but they are not distancing themselves from the Milwaukee Brewers, who are just two games behind.
They have a golden opportunity to increase their lead with a four-game series against the Diamondbacks that starts tonight.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting angles support a moneyline wager on the Padres.
- The Diamondbacks are 18-38, losing 10 units on the moneyline, when priced as a home underdog of at least +140.
- The Padres are 20-11, making 10 units on the moneyline after losing three or more of their last five games and facing a divisional foe.
- The Padres are 9-1, making 10 units, following three consecutive games in which they did not have a multiple-run inning.
I am going to the window betting the Padres on the moneyline -160 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Here are some prop bets to consider on today's schedule.
- Bet the Phillies' Bryce Harper to hit a home run +425 at Unibet.
- Bet the Royals' Daniel Lynch Over 15.5 recorded outs +102 at Caesars.
- Bet the Mets' Jeff McNeil to record an RBI +185 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Cardinals' Miles Mikolas Under 5.5 hits allowed +105 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Oakland’s Tony Kemp to hit a home run +830 at FanDuel.
In the past 98 prop bet picks, I have a 46-52 record, making a profit of $351 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,755 per $100 wager. Over more than three months, the results produced a 53% return on investment (ROI).
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