MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 16

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MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 16

Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

National League Best Bet

Philadelphia Phillies +150 at Atlanta Braves -170

7:20 p.m. ET

The Braves, who trail the Mets by one game in the National League East standings, finish their remaining 19 games facing divisional foes. That starts with this series against the Phillies.

The winner of the NL East will earn the first-round bye in the playoffs and an immeasurable advantage in getting to rest while four other playoff teams compete in a best-of-five format.

In games played in September, the Phillies are 7-5, averaging a -165 moneyline wager and earning a 7% return on investment. The Braves are 8-4, averaging a -200 moneyline wager and earning a 9% ROI.

The Mets have a 7-7 record averaging a massive -258 favorite for a losing -37% ROI. So, you can see the Braves are the team with the momentum and the team I believe will win the NL East divisional crown at +200 as offered at DraftKings.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Under in this matchup.

  • In games played in September, teams that have won at least five of their last six games (Phillies) and are priced as road underdogs of at least 150 on the moneyline, have seen the Under bet produce a 28-16-3 Under record for 64% winning Under bets since 2017.
  • Plus, a subset that is 21-9-2 Under, good for 70% winning bets when facing a divisional foe.

I am betting Under the total of 7.5 runs as offered at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Interleague Best Bet

New York Yankees -125 at Milwaukee Brewers +115

8:10 p.m. ET

The Brewers trail the San Diego Padres by 1.5 games for the final National League Wild Card spot. With only 19 games remaining, they are now facing ‘must win’ situations.  

They begin a three-game series against the New York Yankees, who own the second-best record in the American League.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting angles support a moneyline wager on the Under.

  • Yankees skipper Aaron Boone has seen the Under bet earn a 14-3 record in an interleague matchup against a team scoring an average of 4.4 or more runs per game (RPG).
  • Yankees starter Frankie Montas has seen the Under bet produce a 9-2 record in games when he has been priced between a -125 favorite and a +125 underdog.
  • The Brewers have seen the Under wager produce a 19-8 record in home games and coming off a loss to a divisional foe priced as the favorite in games played over the last two seasons.

I am going to the window betting the Under 8.5 runs -110 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Quick Pitches

Here are some prop bets to consider today.

  • Bet the Phillies' J.T. Realmuto to get 2+ hits +280 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Brewers' Willy Adames to hit a home run +410 at BetRivers.
  • Bet the Rangers' Leody Taveras to record a hit -135 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Pirates' Mitch Keller to record Over 4.5 strikeouts +126 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Dodgers' Trea Turner Over 1.5 total bases +104 at Caesars.

In the past 103 prop bets, I have a 48-55 record, making a profit of $332. per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,660 per $100 wager. Over more than three months, the results produced a 53% return on investment (ROI).

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John Ryan

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