MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 2
Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under or moneyline bets on other games.
National League Best Bet
Chicago Cubs +215 at St. Louis Cardinals -235
8:15 p.m. ET
The St. Louis Cardinals have a 6.5-game lead over the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central division with 31 games remaining.
The Cardinals are tied with the Los Angeles Dodgers with a 22-7 record since Aug. 1 and will look to continue the winning momentum as they head into their final series against the rival Cubs.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Cardinals in this matchup.
- The Cardinals are 29-16, making 14 units on the run line, when facing a struggling team with a win percentage of 45 or lower this season.
- The Cardinals are 11-2, making 11 units on the run line, in home games when facing a starter that averages fewer than five innings per start this season.
- The Cardinals are 16-8, making 10 units on the run line, in home games played in the second half of this season.
I am betting the Cardinals on the –1.5 run line at -115 as offered at BetRivers.
American League Best Bet
New York Yankees +110 at Tampa Bay Rays -120
7:10 p.m. ET
The Yankees had a 15.5-game lead on July 8 and now six over the Rays, who they will face over the next three games.
What appeared to be a formality for the Yankees to win the American League East division has now become a fantastic opportunity for the Rays, knowing they play each other six times over the next two weekends.
The biggest collapse in MLB history was in 1951 when the Dodgers blew a 13.5-game lead to the New York Giants.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting angle supports a moneyline wager on the Rays tonight.
- The Yankees are 10-19, losing 16 units on the moneyline, when playing a winning record team in the second half of this season.
- The Yankees are 9-16, losing 18 units on the moneyline, when facing teams that strand an average of fewer than seven runners on base per game in the second half of this season.
- The Rays are 27-12, making 12 units on the moneyline, in home games when facing teams averaging .6 or fewer errors per game this season.
I am going to the window betting the Rays on the moneyline –120 as offered at BetMGM.
Here are some player prop bets to consider on today's schedule.
- Bet the Orioles' Dean Kremer Over 4.5 strikeouts +110 at BetMGM.
- Bet the A’s Sean Murphy to get a hit –180 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Rays' Jeffrey Springs over 15.5 outs recorded –105 at BetMGM.
- Bet the Phillies' Bryce Harper to hit a home run +600 at Unibet.
- Bet the Dodgers' Max Muncy to record an RBI +175 at FanDuel.
In the past 67 prop bets, I have a 34-33 record, making $240 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,200 per $100 wager. Over the past three months, the results have produced a 47.5% return on investment (ROI).
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