MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 20

MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 20
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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Toronto Blue Jays -115 at Philadelphia Phillies +105

6:45 p.m. ET

The Phillies are on a four-game losing streak. The Blue Jays hold the first of three American League Wild Card berths, but the Tampa Bay Rays and Seattle Mariners are within 1.5 games of them. 

Philadelphia fans are cheering on its rival New York Mets as they continue a three-game series against the Milwaukee Brewers, who the Phillies lead by 2.5 games for the third wild card playoff spot. 

The Blue Jays will have Ross Stripling on the hill, who is 7-4 in 21 starts with a 2.;82 ERA and a .932 WHIP, walking only 14 batters and striking out 91. 

The Phillies will start Kyle Gibson and expect him to bounce back from his recent struggles. Gibson has posted an 8.52 ERA and 1.973 WHIP with five walks and 11 strikeouts spanning 12 2/3 innings. 

The good news for Phillies fans is that Gibson is 5-1 in six career starts against the Blue Jays.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Phillies in this matchup.

  • Phillies starter Gibson is 9-1, making 10 units on the moneyline, as a home underdog over the past two seasons.
  • The Blue Jays are 31-30, losing 22 units on the moneyline, after playing two or more consecutive home games this season.
  • The Phillies are 60-36, making 20 units on the moneyline, when facing a team averaging fewer than seven runners stranded on base in games played this season.

I am betting the Phillies using the moneyline +105 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

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Pittsburgh Pirates +270 at New York Yankees -330

7:05 p.m. ET

Since July 1, the Yankees have a 28-35 record, losing 26 units on the moneyline and seeing a 15.5-game lead shrink to 5.5 games over Toronto. 

With 16 games left, pressure is on the Yankees to win, especially against teams as bad as Pittsburgh. 

However, as I have provided in previous articles this season, these huge underdogs can bet terrific money-making betting opportunities.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting angles support a moneyline wager on the Pirates.

  • The Pirates are 8-3, making 14 units on the moneyline, when facing a team outscoring their opponents by at least one run per game.
  • The Yankees are 10-14, losing 15 units on the moneyline, when facing a team averaging 2.75 or fewer extra-base hits per game in the second half of this season.
  • The Pirates are 9-6, making 11 units on the moneyline, following a five-game stretch in which they batted .200 or worse this season.

I am going to the window betting the Pirates +270 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

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Quick Pitches

Here are some prop bets to consider today.

  • Bet the Phillies' Nick Maton to get 2+ hits +500 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Blue Jays' George Springer to get 2+ hits +210 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Rangers' Cole Ragans Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +110 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the A’s Tony Kemp to get 3+ hits +1800 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Pirates' Ke’Bryan Hayes to get 3+ hits +1600 at FanDuel.

In 118 prop bet picks, I have a 52-61 record, making a profit of $371.20 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,855 per $100 wager. Over more than four months, the results produced a 59.5% return on investment (ROI).

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