MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 21

MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 21
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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Interleague Best Bets

Toronto Blue Jays -115 at Philadelphia Phillies +105

6:45 p.m. ET

The Phillies allowed 18 runs on 21 hits in their 18-11 loss to the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday. 

To try to cut down on that, Philadelphia will start ace Zack Wheeler in this game. Wheeler is 11-7 with a 3.07 ERA for his first start since Aug. 20.

Toronto will start Kevin Gausman, who is 12-10 with a 3.45 ERA and 1.24 Whip and 186 strikeouts.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Phillies using the moneyline in this matchup.

  • Road teams coming off an interleague road win scoring 15 or more runs are 10-20, losing -12.4 units on the moneyline since 2004.
  • Blue Jays pitcher Gausman is 13-33, losing 18 units on the moneyline, when priced as a road underdog between +100 and +150.
  • The Phillies are 5-2 for a solid 42% return on investment (ROI) following a game in which they allowed 17 or more runs and 7-3 when favored in the current game.

I am betting the Phillies using the moneyline -110 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

4 Risk Free Bets Up To $200 Each

Pittsburgh Pirates +245 at New York Yankees -290

7:05 p.m.

The Yankees continue to be led by MVP favorite Aaron Judge, who is hotter than Las Vegas parking lot in July. 

Judge is batting .471, getting 32 hits on 68 at bats with 11 homers and is currently on a 19-game on-base streak. 

More impressive is that he has seen his batting average go from .293 to an AL-leading .316 over this span. His odds just last Friday to win the Triple Crown (highest batting average, leader in home runs, and leader in RBI) were at 16:1 and now have plummeted to just even money.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting angles support a moneyline wager on the Over.

  • Yankees starter Luis Severino is 19-7 Over when facing an opponent that has been outscored by at least .5 runs per game for his career.
  • Yankees skipper Aaron Boone is 32-16 Over as a home favorite between -250 and -300.
  • The Yankees are 26-20 Over following a game in which Judge hit at least two home runs this season.

I am going to the window betting the Over 8 runs -105 as offered at DraftKings Sportsbook.

 

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Quick Pitches

Here are some player prop bets to consider on today's schedule.

  • Bet the Angels' Mike Trout to get a hit -230 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the White Sox's Yoan Moncada to hit a home run +510 at BetRivers.
  • Bet the Dodgers' Chris Taylor to get 2+ hits +280 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Phillies' Zack Wheeler Over 4.5 strikeouts -114 at BetRivers.
  • Bet the Astros' Lance McCullers, Jr. Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +130 at DraftKings.

In the past 117 prop bet picks, I have a 54-63 record, making a profit of $429.20 per $20 pizza-money wager  $2,145 per $100 wager. The results over more than four months have produced a 63% ROI.

 

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