MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 22
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
National League Best Bet
Atlanta Braves -140 at Philadelphia Phillies +125
7:15 p.m. ET
The Phillies broke a five-game losing streak with a 4-3 win in 10 innings over the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday.
The win kept the Milwaukee Brewers 2.5 games behind them for the race to the third and final National League wild-card berth.
Now, the Atlanta Braves come to Citizens Bank Park for a four-game series.
The Braves trail the New York Mets by one game in the NL East standings and will send Max Fried (13-6, 2.52 ERA) to the hill tonight.
The Phillies will counter with left-hander Ranger Suarez (9-5, 3.53 ERA), who is coming off a great start at Atlanta completing six innings, allowing one earned run on two hits.
MLB Betting Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Phillies using the moneyline in this matchup.
- The Phillies are 5-1 following a walk-off win this season.
- Phillies skipper Rob Thomson is 7-1, making nine units on the moneyline, when priced as an underdog between +125 and +175.
- The Braves are a money-burning 5-11, losing eight units on the moneyline, in road games after allowing three or fewer runs in two straight games.
I am betting on the Phillies using the moneyline +125 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
American League Best Bet
Cleveland Guardians -130 at Chicago White Sox +120
8:10 p.m.
The White Sox have had one of the more disappointing seasons of any MLB franchise in recent seasons. They were picked to win the American League Central, but injuries and poor play kept that from happening.
They are mathematically still in the wild-card race, but after losing the first two games of this three-game series against the Guardians, they now face a do-or-die game.
MLB Betting Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting angles support a moneyline wager on Cleveland.
- Guardians starting pitcher Shane Bieber (11-8, 2.88 ERA) is 33-9, making 17 units on the moneyline, when priced as a road favorite for his career.
- Bieber is 11-0, making 11 units on the moneyline, in road games following a win over the past three seasons.
- The White Sox are 11-24, losing 20 units on the moneyline, after their bullpen threw 13 or more innings over their previous three games.
I am going to the window betting the Guardians -120 as offered at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Quick Pitches
Here are some prop bets to consider on today's schedule.
- Bet the Rays' Yandy Diaz to hit a home run +630 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Reds' Hunter Greene Over 4.5 hits allowed +135 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Phillies' Bryce Harper to hit a home run +550 at BetRivers.
- Bet the Phillies' Ranger Suarez Under 2.5 earned runs allowed -135 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Red Sox's Michael Wacha Under 2.5 earned runs allowed -135 at BetMGM.
In the past 122 prop bet picks, I have a 56-66 record, making a profit of $489.20 per $20 pizza-money wager or $2,445 per $100 wager. The results over more than four months have produced a 67% return on investment (ROI).
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