MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 27

MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 27
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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National League Best Bet

Philadelphia Phillies -150 at Chicago Cubs +140

7:40 p.m. ET

In the race for the third and final National League wild-card berth, Philadelphia is leading the Milwaukee Brewers by 1.5 games with 10 games left in the regular season. 

The Phillies' next seven games are against clubs with losing records, starting with this three-game series in Chicago against the Cubs, followed by a four-game set in Washington against the Nationals. 

Phillies ace Zack Wheeler is scheduled to start, but keep an eye on the MLB news wire. There have been rumblings that Noah Syndergaard might make an unscheduled start instead, a move that would drop the Phillies' price tag a bit.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Phillies using the moneyline in this matchup.

  • The Phillies are 24-8 making 15 units on the moneyline following five or more consecutive home games.
  • The Cubs are 11-21, losing 12 units on the moneyline, after batting .225 or worse over their previous five games.
  • Cubs starter Marcus Stroman is 1-9, losing 10 units on the moneyline, when the total has been priced at 7 or 7.5 runs.

I am betting the Phillies using the moneyline at -160 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

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American League Best Bet

New York Yankees +100 at Toronto Blue Jays -110

7:07 p.m. ET

With a win Monday, the Blue Jays snapped the Yankees' seven-game victory streak at seven games. I had a best bet on the Blue Jays Monday and now will turn my attention to a bet on the over, currently priced at eight runs. 

Since hitting his 60th home run, Aaron Judge is 4-for-15, batting .267 with no home runs. However, he has hit four bombs in his past nine games at Rogers Centre in Toronto. 

The Blue Jays, who are trying to lock down the top AL wild-card spot, will hand the baseball to Jose Berrios (11-6, 5.27 ERA) on Tuesday. With a win over the Blue Jays tonight, the Yankees would clinch the AL East division title.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting angles support a bet on the over-8 runs.

  • The Blue Jays are 49-34 Over when facing an opponent with a winning record this season.
  • Yankees starter Jameson Taillon is 26-14 Over in games played at night over the past two seasons.
  • Taillon is 19-8 Over in road starts over the past two seasons.

I am going to the window betting the over-8 runs –105 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

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Quick Pitches

Here are some prop bets to consider on today's schedule.

  1. Bet the Yankees' Aaron Judge to get 2+ hits +250 at FanDuel.
  2. Bet the Blue Jays' Teoscar Hernandez to get 2+ hits +350 at FanDuel.
  3. Bet the Cardinals' Paul Goldschmidt to get 3+ hits +1200 at BetMGM.
  4. Bet Dodgers' Tyler Anderson over 3.5 strikeouts +105 at DraftKings.
  5. Bet the Red Sox's Xander Bogaerts to get 3+ hits +1000 at FanDuel.

In the past 131 prop bet picks, I have a 58-73 record, making a profit of $383.20 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,915 per $100 wager. The results over more than four months have produced a 62% return on investment (ROI).

 

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