MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 29

MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 29
© USA Today

Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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National League Best Bet

Miami Marlins +165 at Milwaukee Brewers -175

7:40 p.m. ET

The Brewers are just ½-game behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the wild card race and will start Eric Lauer, who is 0-3 with an 8.76 ERA and a 2.271 WHIP in three career starts against the Marlins. 

Florida will counter with left-hander Braxton Garrett, who is 3-6 with a 3.52 ERA. 

The Brewers have struggled against southpaws, scoring 3.9 runs per game and batting.218. They have struck out 491 times, or 30% of the plate appearances made facing a left-handed pitcher and 35% of all strikeouts on the season, totaling 1,386.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Marlins using the moneyline in this matchup.

  • The Brewers are 2-8, losing 11 units on the moneyline, in home games following three or more consecutive Under results over the last three seasons.
  • The Marlins are 11-3, making nine units on the moneyline, playing on Thursdays this season.
  • The Brewers are 23-29, losing 23 units on the moneyline, when facing a National League team with an on-base percentage of .325 or lower in the second half of this season.

I am betting the Marlins using the moneyline at +170 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

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American League Best Bet

Texas Rangers +105 at Seattle Mariners -115

8:40 p.m. ET

Despite posting a 4-6 record over their last 10 games, the Mariners appear headed for the playoffs. They lead the Baltimore Orioles by 4 1/2 games for the third and final American League wild-card berth.

The Mariners ended a two-game losing skid with a win over the Rangers on Wednesday. Today's meeting is the final game of the season series.

The Rangers will start Jon Gray, who is 7-7 in 22 starts with a 3.56 ERA and a 1.100 WHIP. He has been brilliant over his last three starts posting a 1.380 ERA and a .538 WHIP.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting angles support a bet on the Rangers.

  • The Rangers are 24-18, making 11 units on the moneyline, after batting .225 or lower over their last five games.
  • Texas is 18-5, making 15 units on the moneyline, following two consecutive games where it stranded five or fewer runners on base.
  • Texas is 29-30, making 13 units on the moneyline, when on the road following a game in which its bullpen allowed zero earned runs over the last two seasons.

I am going to the window betting the Rangers +105 as offered at BetRivers Sportsbook.

 

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Quick Pitches

These are the Player Prop Bets I like on Today’s schedule.

  1. Bet Mariners starter Marco Gonzalez Over 5.5 hits allowed +100 at DraftKings.
  2. Bet Marlins starter Braxton Garrett Over 5.5 strikeouts -122 at FanDuel.
  3. Bet Rockies starter Ryan Feltner Over 15.5 recorded outs -110 at BetMGM.

In 141 prop bets, I have a 62-79 record, making a profit of $367.20 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,836 per $100 wager. Over more than five months, the results produced a 58% return on investment (ROI).

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