MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 6

MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 6
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

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National League Best Bet

New York Mets -215 at Pittsburgh Pirates +195

6:35 p.m. ET

The Mets are leading the National League East on Labor Day for the first time in 14 years, but that lead is shrinking. 

The Braves have moved within one game, so New York’s series with the Pirates is important. 

Atlanta and the Mets will be in the playoffs, but they are battling to win the division and get a first-round bye. 

Situational Trends and Angles

How the situational angles add up for this game.

  • The Mets are 20-40, losing 26 units on the run line, when facing an NL foe batting .245 or lower in the second half of the past two seasons.
  • The Pirates are 16-7, making 10 units on the run line, when facing an NL foe scoring 4.5 or more RPG in the second half of the last two seasons.
  • The Mets are 7-20, losing 17 units on the run line, following seven or more home games over the last two seasons.

I am betting on the Pirates on the +1.5-run line at -115 as offered at BetRivers.

 

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American League Best Bet

Toronto Blue Jays -110 at Baltimore Orioles -110

7:05 p.m. ET

The MLB decision to expand the number of playoff teams from five to six teams has been terrific, especially for fans of the Baltimore Orioles, who have had many difficult seasons.

The Orioles are in the thick of the playoff race for that third Wild Card berth. 

They can cut into the 4.5-game deficit for that berth with a win over their AL East divisional rival Toronto Blue Jays tonight.

The following situational betting angle supports a moneyline wager on the Orioles tonight.

  • The Orioles are 50-36, making 33 units on the moneyline, in games played at night this season.
  • The Orioles are 13-4, making 8.7 units on the moneyline, when priced as a home favorite of -100 to -150 this season.
  • The Orioles are 24-10, making 21 units on the moneyline following four or more consecutive home games this season.

I will bet the Orioles on the moneyline –110 as offered at BetMGM.

 

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Quick Pitches

These are the Player Prop Bets to consider on today’s schedule.

  1. Bet the Phillies’ Aaron Nola Over 19.5 outs recorded -120 at Caesars.
  2. Bet the Braves’ Austin Riley to get 2+ hits +180 at Unibet.
  3. Bet the Angels’ Mike Trout to hit a home run +325 at Unibet.
  4. Bet the Diamondbacks’ Josh Rojas to get a hit -185 at FanDuel.
  5. Bet the Brewers’ Willy Adames to get 2+ hits +145 at FanDuel.

In the past 72 prop bet picks, I have a 36-36 record, making $206 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,030 per $100 wager. The results over the past three months have produced a 42.5% return on investment.

 

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