MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 8

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MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 8
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.


National League Best Bet

Miami Marlins +115 at Philadelphia Phillies -135

6:45 p.m. ET

With Wednesday's 4-3 win, the Phillies are tied for the second National League Wild Card berth.

They will have their hands full to win the final game of this three-game series against the Marlins, going against NL Cy Young favorite Sandy Alcantara.  

Alcantara is 12-7 in 27 starts with a 2.36 ERA and a 0.996 WHIP. He has 170 strikeouts and 47 walks in 190 1/3 innings. The heavy workload is taking a toll as he has allowed 13 earned runs over his past three starts for a 6.62 ERA and a 1.528 WHIP. 

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on Philadelphia using the moneyline in this matchup.

  • The Marlins are 22-58, losing 28 units on the moneyline, when priced as an underdog this season.
  • The Phillies are 20-7, making 14 units on the moneyline, in home games when the total has been 7 or 7.5 runs this season.
  • The Marlins are 4-24, losing 20 units, when facing an NL team scoring 4.5 or more runs per game in the second half of this season.

I am betting the Phillies on the moneyline at –134 as offered at FanDuel Sportsbook.


American League Best Bet

Chicago White Sox -188 at Oakland A’s +160

9:40 p.m. ET

The White Sox have won six of their last 10 games and Guardians have won three of their past 10 games. 

Chicago and the Minnesota Twins trail the Guardians by two games in the Central.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting angle supports a run line wager on the White Sox.

  • The A’s are 9-23, losing 15 units on the run line, in home games and taking on an opponent that is averaging 4.5 or more RPG this season.
  • The A’s are 12-29 on the run line, losing 17 units, when facing an AL foe that sports a slugging percentage of .410 or lower on the season.

I am going to the window betting the CWS on the -1.5-run line -106 as offered at FanDuel.


Quick Pitches

Here are some player prop bets to consider on today's schedule.

  • Bet the A’s Ramon Laureano to hit a home run +600 at BetRivers.
  • Bet the Phillies' Alec Bohm to get 2+ hits +230 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Twins' Nick Gordon to get a single +110 at DraftKings.

In the past 76 player prop bet picks, I have a 39-37 record, making a new-high profit of $357 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,785 per $100 wager. The results over more than three months have produced a 55% return on investment.


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