MLB Picks: Can the Yankees Bounce Back in Game 2?

MLB Picks: Can the Yankees Bounce Back in Game 2?
© USA Today

Let's look ahead to tonight's game in Houston to help with your MLB betting.

New York Yankees +130 at Houston Astros -150

7:37 p.m. ET, TBS

First, let's look at the prop bets worth considering tonight.

BetRivers-105Astros’ Framber Valdez Over 5.5 strikeouts
DraftKings-105Yankees’ Luis Severino Under 4.5 strikeouts
FanDuel-110Astros’ Chas McCormick to get a hit
FanDuel-110Yankees’ Matt Carpenter to get a hit
DraftKings400Astros’ Yordan Alvarez to get a hit

 

In 200 prop bets, I have an 87-113 record, making a profit of $544 per $20 pizza-money wager or $2,720 per $100 wager, which is the season high. The results have produced a 73% return on investment (ROI) for the 2022 MLB season and playoffs. 

Now, let's go to the game.

I am betting on the Astros on the moneyline –148 at FanDuel.

The Astros ranked second-best in the league by striking out only 1,179 times, for a 19.5% percentage. 

Houston will put the ball in play and force the defense to make plays. This was a glaring fact in Game 1 as the Yankees struck out 17 times. That was the 12th playoff game since 2004 in which a team struck out 17 or more times.

The Yankees struck out seven more times than the Astros in Game 1, and teams that do this did not do well in the next game of a playoff series. 

Teams went 31–44, losing 11 units on the moneyline, for a –17% return on investment (ROI) since 2004 when they strike out that many more times than the opposition. 

In this situation, the Over won 44-30-1 for 60% winning Over bets.

The Trends and Angles you need to know for Game 2 of the ALCS

  • The Astros are 29-7, making 22 units on the moneyline, when facing an AL team allowing 3.9 or fewer runs per game.
  • The Astros are 17-2, making 14 units on the moneyline, when facing an AL team allowing 3.9 or fewer runs per game in the second half of this season.
  • The Astros are 18-4, making 16 units on the moneyline when facing a team outscoring their opponents by an average of .5 runs per game this season.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy

  • Bet 50% of your normal bet amount ‘pre-flop’ (before the game starts) on the Astros on the moneyline.
  • If the Yankees score first and not more than 3 runs in total during the first two innings, bet the remaining 50% using the live in-game moneyline price on the Astros.

 

×