MLB Picks: Philadelphia Phillies Try to Take Big Lead vs. San Diego Padres

Date IconLast Updated: Sep 29th, 2023
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MLB Picks: Philadelphia Phillies Try to Take Big Lead vs. San Diego Padres
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To help with your MLB betting, we take a look at today's playoff game.

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres

Game 2, 4:35 p.m. ET, FOX

Petco Park, San Diego

The Phillies won Game 1 of the NLCS the same way they have been winning many games this season with Kyle Schwarber’s and Bryce Harper’s bat, and the arm of Zack Wheeler. 

The Phillies turn to Aaron Nola for Game 2 and he has not allowed an earned run in the playoffs. The Padres might be in deep trouble.

Situational Trends and Angles

  • The Over is 21-12-1 (64%) in Game-2 of a playoff series if the road team won Game-1 and the line is between a –125 favorite and a +125 underdog.
  • The Phillies are 6-2 at Petco Park with the average score being 4-3
  • The Phillies skipper Rob Thomson is 40-12 making 24 units on moneyline when facing an opponent that averages 2.75 or fewer extra-base hits per game.
  • The Padres starter Blake Snell is 0-3 in four career starts against the Phillies with a 4.91 ERA and a 1.309 WHIP
  • Snell is 1-5 losing 7 units on the moneyline in day-game starts this season.
  • Phillies are 8-6 making 6 units on the moneyline when priced as an underdog and facing a left-handed starter this season.

I am betting on the Phillies using the moneyline priced at +102 at FandDuel.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy

  • Bet 50% of your normal bet amount ‘pre-flop’ (before the game starts) on the Phillies on the moneyline.
  • If, during the first three innings, the Padres score first and not more than 3 runs in total, bet the remaining 50% using the live in-game moneyline price on the Phillies.

Quick Pitches

Here are some player prop bets to consider today.

SportsbookOddsProp Bet 
FanDuel-124Astros’ Justin Verlander Over 5.5 strikeouts
FanDuel-110Astros’ Chas McCormick to get a hit
FanDuel-110Padres’ Blake Snell Under 6.5 strikeouts
BetMGM+425Phillies’ Bryce Harper to hit a double
BetMGM-110Padres’ Blake Snell Under 6.5 strikeouts
BetMGM+525Phillies’ Alex Bohm to hit a home run

In 194 prop bets, I have an 82-112 record, making a profit of $399 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,995 per $100 wager. The results have produced a 61% return on investment (ROI) for the 2022 MLB season and playoffs.