MLB Picks: WhIch Team Takes Control In the NLCS?

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MLB Picks: WhIch Team Takes Control In the NLCS?
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Let's look ahead to tonight's game in Houston to help with your MLB betting.

San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies

7:37 p.m. ET, FS1

Here are some prop bets options for tonight's game.

SportsbookOddsProp Bet
BetRivers650Phillies’ Nick Castellanos to hit a home run
Unibet400Padres’ Manny Machado to hit a home run
FanDuel300Phillies’ Alec Bohm to get 2+ hits
FanDuel-120Phillies’ Brandon Marsh to get a hit
DraftKings-115Padres Under 5.5 strikeouts

In 204 prop bets, I have an 88-116 record, making a profit of $501 per $20 pizza-money wager or $2,505 per $100 wager, which is the season high. The results have produced a 70% return on investment (ROI) for the 2022 MLB season and playoffs. 

Now, let's get to the game.

I am betting on the Phillies on the moneyline -105 at FanDuel

The Phillies have the opportunity to defeat the Padres ace Joe Musgrove and, in the process, take full control of the series with their pair of aces Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola scheduled to pitch in Games 5 and 6.

Musgrove has a terrific cutter and curveball that has late-breaking and exceptional depth that generates far more ground ball outs than fly ball outs. The primary key you want to watch for is his ground ball to fly ball ratio. 

The Phillies' offense is outstanding, and Musgrove must keep the ball down in the lower half of the strike zone if he is going to be successful and complete six or more innings. Any pitch left up in the middle half and middle-in of the strike zone is going to be hit hard by the Phillies.

This season, Musgrove has thrown his slider 24%, sinking fastball 29%, curve 19%, cutter 20%, and change 8%. So, he has a varied repertoire of pitches, but the Phillies will sit on that slider and look to drive the ball to the opposite field. The Phillies ranked second in MLB getting 20% of their hits to the opposite field and this is the game plan for the right-handed Phillies hitters to score runs against Musgrove.

The Trends and Angles you need to know for Game 3 of the NLCS

  • The Phillies are 30-20, making 14 units on the moneyline, when facing an NL starter with an ERA of 3.20 or lower.
  • Phillies starter Ranger Suarez is 10-5, making nine units on the moneyline, when facing a foe with a winning record.
  • Suarez is 14-6, making nine units on the moneyline, when the total has been between 7 and 8.5 runs.
  • The Padres are 36-38, losing 15 units on the moneyline, after having won four or five of their last six games.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy

  • Bet 50% of your normal bet amount ‘pre-flop’ (before the game starts) on the Phillies on the moneyline.
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