World Series Pick: Best Bets to Make on Phillies at Astros, Game 1

World Series Pick: Best Bets to Make on Phillies at Astros, Game 1
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To get you ready for your World Series betting, here are our best prop bet picks and our game picks.

Prop Bet Picks for World Series Game 1

Sportsbook Odds Prop Bet
DraftKings +120 Astros’ Justin Verlander Under 5.5 strikeouts
DraftKings +100 Phillies’ Aaron Nola Under 1.5 earned runs allowed
BetMGM +320 Phillies’ Bryce Harper to hit a double
FanDuel +260 Phillies’ Alec Bohm to record an RBI
BetRivers +900 Astros’ Chas McCormick to hit a home run
BetMGM +550 One Game Parlay: Phillies win the game, Nola strikes out 7 or more batters, and Phillies score 5 or more runs

In 204 prop bets, I have an 88-116 record, making a profit of $501 per $20 pizza-money wager or $2,505 per $100 wager. The results have produced a 70% return on investment (ROI) for the 2022 MLB season and playoffs. 

Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros

8:07 p.m. ET, FOX

Minute Maid Park, Houston

I am betting the Phillies on the moneyline +145 at PointsBet.

Not all my handicapping processes are based on numbers and this series has a substantial number of intangibles that are founded by my 28 years of professional sports betting experience. Call it a ‘gut feeling’, but I have been around sports all my life either as a player, coach, or fan and I think the Phillies have a monumental mental edge over the Astros.

Since Rob Thomson took over as manager on May 27, the Phillies posted the fifth-best went 75-52. In that same time span, the Astros were 84-39. The Phillies played in the NL East which had two teams in the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets that 100 games. Houston's division, the AL West, was much weaker.

The Trends and Angles you need to know for Game 1 of the World Series

  • The Astros are 1-6 in their last seven World Series home games.
  • The Under is 6-1-1 in the Astros' last eight home playoff games.
  • The Under is 6-1 in Aaron Nola’s last seven road starts when facing a team with a winning record.
  • The Phillies are 70-436, making 19 units on the moneyline, when facing a team that averages fewer than seven runners stranded on base.
  • The Phillies are 20-9 making, 14 units on the moneyline, when playing a game on Friday this season.
  • For his career, Astros manager Dusty Baker is 56-64, losing 27 units on the moneyline, in home games when facing a foe that is averaging 1.25 or more home runs per game.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy

  • Bet 50% of your normal bet amount ‘pre-flop’ (before the game starts) on the Phillies using the moneyline.
  • If, during the first two innings, the Astros score first and not more than 3 runs, bet the remaining 50% using the Live in-game moneyline price on the Phillies.
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