MLS Picks: Week 12 Betting Advice and Analysis
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After some crazy results in the U.S. Open Cup during the week, MLS returns this weekend before another set of games in a few days.
Buckle up for an almighty 27 MLS games in the next six days.
To help with your MLS betting, here are our picks for Week 12.
St. Louis City (+250) at Chicago Fire (-110)
Just three days after meeting in the Open Cup at Soldier Field, St. Louis City is at Chicago Fire again.
Maren Haile-Selassie and Fabien Herbers scored a goal each in the win for the Fire during the week, as Miguel Perez scored late on in the game for St. Louis.
Despite the win, things have been different in MLS for these two, as Chicago has won just two of the 10 games so far, while St. Louis has won six.
We’re picking it to avenge the recent loss to Chicago.
PICK: Under 3.5 goals and St. Louis City to win is +384 with FanDuel Sportsbook.
New York City (+270) at New York Red Bulls (-105)
It's the 25th edition of the Hudson River Derby this weekend with New York City at New York Red Bulls.
New York City won both the games last year and kept two shutouts in those games. It has also won four of the 11 MLS games this season compared to the Red Bulls' sole win in 11 matches.
Although the sportsbook favors the Red Bulls to win, recent form in MLS and recent history in this derby points us towards a win for the Pigeons.
PICK: New York City to win and Gabriel Pereira to score anytime is +650 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
New England Revolution (+170) at Inter Miami (+140)
New England Revolution was stunned by Pittsburgh Riverhounds in the U.S. Open Cup on Wednesday, but it remains top of the Eastern Conference with just one loss this season.
Inter Miami has let in 11 goals in 10 MLS games already and lost six times so far. It is unbeaten in the past four games, so although we think New England will win, it will likely be a close game.
PICK: New England to win and under 2.5 goals is +550 with Unibet.
Charlotte (+410) at Atlanta United (-190)
Atlanta has lost its past three games but in doing so, it has also kept up its record of scoring in every MLS game this season. What's more, it has already defeated Charlotte this season after two goals from Caleb Wiley and a finish from Luiz Araujo at Charlotte.
Charlotte has also let in 21 goals already this year and this means it is the worst defensive side in MLS right now.
PICK: Atlanta United to win 2-1, 3-1 or 4-1 is +320 with FanDuel.
Orlando City (+360) at Columbus Crew (-155)
Columbus Crew returned to the win column with a fantastic 5-1 win at Loudoun United and it remains sixth in MLS after four wins and 19 goals in 10 games.
Orlando has lost its last two games and was beaten by Montreal in its last MLS game.
This should be a routine win for the Crew.
PICK: Columbus to win 2-0 is +700 with Unibet.
Toronto (+220) at Montreal (+110)
It's a Canadian derby between Montreal and Toronto in MLS this weekend and it comes just three days on from the meeting between the two that saw Montreal win in the Canadian Championship.
Zarchary Brault-Guillard and Chinonso Offor scored a goal each before Lorenzo Insigne brought one back.
Both have struggled in MLS so far, and as both sit on 12 points each, we are picking a tie.
PICK: A 1-1 tie is +600 with BetMGM Sportsbook.
Nashville (+210) at D.C. United (+155)
Despite only four points separating D.C. United and Nashville, it is Nashville that comes into this game in much better form and higher up the standings.
It has won its past four games in a row and also tied with Los Angeles before this run. In fact, Nashville has lost just one of its past eight games while D.C. has lost its past two.
PICK: Nashville to win 2-1 is +850 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
Seattle Sounders (+175) at Houston Dynamo (+135)
After beating Sporting Kansas City in the Open Cup, Houston has now won all six of its games at home and incredibly kept a shutout in each one.
Moreover, despite being top of the Western Conference, Seattle has failed to win its past three games and even lost to Kansas in Seattle last weekend.
PICK: Houston to win 1-0, 2-0 or 3-0 is +350 with BetMGM Sportsbook.
Dallas (+210) at Austin (+110)
Another Texas derby goes down in Austin this weekend with Dallas looking to move into third in the Western Conference.
Austin beat New Mexico United in the Open Cup on Wednesday just as Dallas lost at Nashville. Austin has, however, let in 12 goals in 10 MLS games already and despite being at home, we think Dallas has a great chance to win.
PICK: Dallas to win and under 2.5 is +550 with Caesars Sportsbook.
Minnesota United (+270) at Sporting Kansas City (-155)
Kansas has finally won a game after a stunning win at Seattle. Erik Thommy and Alan Pulido scored a goal each that day in what was easily the biggest upset of the season when bottom beat top in the Western Conference.
Minnesota has won just one of its past seven games in regular time, and we’re picking Kansas to get another win after seemingly turning a corner.
PICK: Kansas to win and under 2.5 goals is +341 with FanDuel Sportsbook.
Philadelphia Union (+160) at Colorado Rapids (+150)
Only two points separate Philadelphia Union and Colorado Rapids in the overall table but it's the latter that heads into this game in much better form.
Colorado has avoided defeat in its past nine games and beat LA Galaxy in California last weekend before a 4-2 win in the Open Cup at Sacramento Republic.
The Union has won just two of its past eight games and it should lose again here. However, with just nine goals scored so far, the Rapids will struggle to achieve over 2.5 goals.
PICK: A tie at half time and Colorado to win at full time is +525 with Unibet.
Los Angeles (+125) at Real Salt Lake (+180)
Los Angeles lost for the first time in MLS this year last weekend against San Jose Earthquakes, but it is still the best team after 11 gameweeks. In fact, with two extra games to play over first-placed Seattle, LAFC can go top of the Western Conference if it wins those games.
Real Salt Lake has let in 17 goals in 10 MLS games already and conceded three goals in a 4-3 win at Portland Timbers in the Open Cup.
RSL continues to struggle in defense, and LAFC should get a few goals here.
PICK: LAFC to win, over 2.5 goals and Carlos Vela to score anytime is +391 with FanDuel Sportsbook.
Vancouver Whitecaps (+195) at Portland Timbers (+120)
Portland and Vancouver have won three games each this season, but the Timbers have scored one more goal (15) than the Whitecaps' tally.
On the other hand, only LAFC has a better defensive record than Vancouver with just nine goals let in so far. It also beat York United 4-1 in the Canadian Championship on Wednesday and it has a great chance to get at least a tie in Portland.
PICK: A 1-1 tie is +550 with Caesars Sportsbook.
San Jose Earthquakes (+280) at LA Galaxy (-125)
San Jose Earthquakes registered one of the best wins of the 2023 season so far last weekend by beating LAFC. At the same time, LA Galaxy lost to Colorado but defeated Seattle in the Open Cup in midweek.
Recent results make this game tough to call, but the Galaxy has kept just one shutout this season, so we think there will be a few goals here.
PICK: Over 2.5 goals, both teams to score and Javier Hernandez to score is +230 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
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