The Most Statistically Likely Bets In The MLS This Weekend

Date IconLast Updated: Sep 28th, 2022
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The Most Statistically Likely Bets In The MLS This Weekend
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With the MLS back in full sing this weekend. below are the most statistically likely bets to make involving teams in the U.S. and Canada.

Javier Hernandez to Score First Against the Timbers - 28.6%

The LA Galaxy, with striker Javier Hernandez, pictured at right, will look to keep up their excellent run when they meet the Portland Timbers in California on Saturday. The Galaxy are coming off victories over Austin FC, 4-1, and hometown rival Los Angeles FC, 3-1, in the U.S. Open Cup.

Hernandez has scored seven times in all competitions, with six coming from 14 games in the MLS. Four of those six came as the first one in the game, meaning that in the 14 games Hernandez has played, he has scored the first goal in 28.6% of the matchups.

What's more, the Timbers have the fourth-worst defensive record in the Western Conference, as they have conceded 25 goals in 15 games.

Robin Jansson to be Carded First Against Houston - 53.3%

It’s very rare we get this late into the season with so many cards being registered. After 15 weeks of the MLS season, the league has seen a record number of cards, with Robin Jansson registering many of them.

The Orlando City player has received nine cards in only 15 games, in what is an incredibly ill-disciplined record. Jansson has received the first card of the game in 53.3% of the 15 contests he has played.

Jansson and company face off against a Houston Dynamo team that has scored the exact same number of goals as they have given up (17). This promises to be a back-and-forth game with plenty of tackles.

Salt Lake and the Quakes to See Over 3.5 goals - 40%

The trend of high-scoring games in San Jose Earthquakes games continues, with them now being a part of an astonishing 57 goals in only 15 games. 

Despite a 0-0 draw against Nashville the last time out, just prior to this, the Quakes experienced a 3-2 loss to LAFC, a 1-1 draw with Sporting KC, a 3-2 defeat to the Timbers and a 3-3 draw with the Vancouver Whitecaps.

The Quakes face off against third-placed Real Salt Lake, which has scored 19 times and let in 18 goals. 

In games involving the Quakes, 40% of their combined 30 games to date have seen over 3.5 goals.

Montreal to Win and BTTS - 42.9%

Montreal will be aiming to rejuvenate its title race in the Eastern Conference, as the team faces off against a fellow MLS Cup hopeful, Austin. The Texas team has had a fantastic run so far, netting 28 goals in 14 games. Montreal has scored the exact same amount.

The Canadian team has let in an alarming 26 goals, which means they’re likely to give up goals in this game, although they are favored to win.