Betting Advice and Analysis For The Ruoff Mortgage 500

Date IconLast Updated: Sep 28th, 2022
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Betting Advice and Analysis For The Ruoff Mortgage 500
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To this point, NASCAR’s goal of creating a more level playing field with the NextGen car has paid off.

Through three races, there’s been three different winners with Autin Cindric taking the Daytona 500, Kyle Larson winning at Fontana and Alex Bowman taking the checkered flag first at Las Vegas. It means you have to do some NASCAR betting prep work.

We’ve seen multiple drivers contend up front with 25 different lap leaders, giving the sport more parity than it has seen in recent years.

Sure, Hendrick Motorsports won two of the three races, but Tyler Reddick dominated much of the race at Fontana before a cut tire cost him his race, while Ross Chastain led a race-high 83 laps at Las Vegas. The other teams have shown the ability to regularly compete with the top teams.

Now the field heads to the 1-mile Phoenix Raceway for Sunday’s Ruoff Mortgage 500. This will be the shortest and flattest track for the NextGen car so far this season. It will be interesting to see if cautions are still rampant.

At both Fontana and Las Vegas, there were 12 cautions at each race as many were due to drivers simply losing their cars in the corner and spinning out. NASCAR and the drivers wanted a more difficult car to drive, and it appears to be working with how many single-car incidents we’ve seen.

Best Bet/Longshot

Ross Chastain to win +5000 DraftKings Sportsbook; Daniel Suarez to win +8000 FanDuel Sportsbook

One of the teams that has appeared to figure out the NextGen care is TrackHouse Racing. A two-car team featuring Chastain and Daniel Suarez.

Chastain had one of the more dominant cars at Las Vegas, leading a race-high 83 laps before finishing third. Suarez was also contending near the front earlier in the race before Chase Briscoe lost control of his car and put Suarez into the wall. It was the second week in a row Suarez displayed pace. At Fontana, he finished fourth.

Kyle Larson (+400) could dominate the race and win going away because he is the best driver in the world right now. But the increased levels of parity this season make it worth it to throw a few dollars on Chastain or Suarez in case either breaks through.

Best Prop

Kevin Harvick Top 10 -165 DraftKings Sportsbook

Right now, DraftKings is the only sportsbook with top 10 bets available. As the race draws nearer, you may be able to find a better number on this prop.

There are numerous reasons you can cite for Harvick hitting this prop. He has track records of 18 top fives, 27 top 10s and has led the most laps here of any driver (1,663). But the main stat that sticks out is that he’s finished in the top 10 in his last 17 (!) starts at Phoenix. Here are his finishes during that span: first, first, first, first, second, first, fourth, sixth, fifth, first, fifth, ninth, fifth, second, seventh, sixth, eighth.

Harvick is also +2000 to win the race at FanDuel and DraftKings. It’s been four years since he’s won here, but given his recent success, the top 10 prop is worth a play as well as an outright win.