Betting Advice on NBA Play-in Games for April 12

Betting Advice on NBA Play-in Games for April 12
© USA Today

The Minnesota Timberwolves have not been in the playoffs since the 2004-05 season. But that can change with a win tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers in the play-in game. Tip off is set for 9:30 p.m. ET at the Target Center and will be televised by TNT.

The Timberwolves have stumbled into the playoffs losing 6 of their last 10 games and have against the spread in just three of those 10 games, losing the last four games to the number.

The Clippers won their last five games and covered the spread in four of those.

Four of their last six wins were over teams in the playoffs: Utah, at Milwaukee, New Orleans and Phoenix.

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What Does the Market Tell Us?

Despite the poor finish to the regular season, Minnesota is a 3-point home favorite, after a 2.5-point opening.

The total opened at 231 points and has adjusted to 230.5, despite 62% of the tickets bet on the Under.

This means the bigger bets have yet to be placed or the bigger bets are on both sides of this total line.

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What Do the Analytics Have to Say?

The analytics produced from my database and thousands of queries point to a betting opportunity on the Over.

In the second half of the season, the Timberwolves were 10-1 Over in the second half of this season when facing a foe that is making at least 36% of their 3-point shots. They were 15-6 Over when facing a team with a winning record and 16-5-1 Over when facing a team that is averaging just 13 or feet forced turnovers per game.

The Clippers were 16-5-1 Over in road games revenging a home loss over the past two seasons and 148-110-3 Over in road games and revenging a double-digit loss spanning the last 25 NBA seasons.

Minnesota coach Chris Finch is a solid and profitable 17-6 Over after having failed to cover the spread in five or six of his last games.

I’m taking the Under in this game.

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Other Betting Opportunities and Player Props

Other NBA betting plays I like tonight:

  • Bet the Under for Karl Anthony-Towns points and assists total of 31.5 at -110 as offered at BetMGM.
  • Bet Over Patrick Beverley points and assists total of 14.5 at -111 as offered at FanDuel.
  • Bet that Paul George will record a triple-double offered at +1800 at FanDuel.
  • Bet that Reggie Jackson will record a double-double offered at +800 at FanDuel.
  • Bet that Kyrie Irving will make more than 3.5 3-pointers offered with +120 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Nets, using the -4.5 first-half points betting line.
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