Can Philadelphia Bounce Back to Beat Miami Without Joel Embiid? Don't Bet on It
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Here is our NBA betting for tonight's playoff games. Read on before you make your wagers.
Philadelphia 76ers at Miami Heat
7 p.m., TNT
The absence of Joel Embid in the paint has created a black hole for Philadelphia and allowed the Miami Heat defenders to gradually move out towards the 3-point shooting line.
That has made it tough on 76ers perimeter shooters. All had to constantly take contested jumpers in Game 1.
Philadelphia confused Miami at times by playing a zone defense, causing some bad shots as the shot clock was expiring.
What Do the Situational Analytics Tell Us?
Miami is 19-5 against the spread, making 13 units per unit wager when facing good 3-point shooting teams, making at least 36% of its shot attempts.
The Heat is 24-11 against the spread, making 11 units per unit wagered when facing solid shooting teams overall that are making 46% or more of their shot attempts.
The Heat is 33-14 against the spread, making 17 units per unit wager when facing a defensive opponent that is forcing 13 or fewer turnovers per game this season.
If you like the Over bet tonight, then you'll like to know Miami is 25-14, making 10 units per unit wager when facing solid defensive teams, allowing 108 or fewer points per game.
If you like the Under bet, then you'll like to know Philadelphia is 14- 4 as a road underdog. The 76ers are also 19-8 Under as an underdog this season.
I am betting on Miami minus the points.
Dallas vs Phoenix
10 p.m. ET, TNT
The betting markets opened with Phoenix favored by six points and has remained static throughout the day.
The fact that 59% of the tickets bet and 60% of the money is on the Suns and the line has not moved higher means that the sharp money is on the Mavericks.
The total opened at 216 points and has remained even though 62% of all tickets and 65% of all money bet on this game is on the Over, but the line has not moved.
Live-Game Strategy is Tonight’s Best Bet
If The Mavericks are leading at the half, consider betting the Suns to win the game and cover the live in game betting line available at halftime.
Let's say Dallas is leading by four or more points at that half. The Suns would be only a two- or three-point favorite at this point.
Over the past five playoff seasons, when the top seed has been behind at the half and is favored, they have covered the live in-game halftime betting line at a 79% success rate.
The Player Prop Best Bets
Here are some other bets I like tonight:
I am betting pizza-sized amounts on James Harden Under 4.5 turnovers at +115 as offered at BetMGM.
I am betting Georges Niang Over 1.5 made 3-pointers at -125 as offered at BetMGM.
I am betting Mikal Bridges Over 17.5 points and assists at -110 as offered at BetMGM.
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