Miami Heat, Phoenix Suns Are Good Bets To Clinch On The Road
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So far in the Eastern Conference best-of-seven semifinal series, the Philadelphia 76ers and Miami Heat have won on their home courts and covered the spread, with the Heat destroying the 76ers in Game 5, 120-85.
Miami is up 3-2 in the series and can close it out on the road Thursday against Joel Embiid and the 76ers. The game starts at 7 p.m. ET.
The Heat will be without Kyle Lowry, who sat out Game 5 with a strained left hamstring, according to NBA.com. However, the team will have a well-rested Jimmy Butler, who scored 23 points in Tuesday’s Game 5 blowout home victory.
With a win on Thursday, the Heat will advance to the conference finals.
When looking at how to bet Thursday’s game, remember that the 76ers are a money-burning 16-30 against the spread following a road game this season.
With this in mind, I am betting on the Miami Heat plus the 2.5 points as offered by BetMGM Sportsbook.
Take the Suns To Win In Dallas
Like the Eastern Conference semifinal matchup, the home team in the Phoenix Sun-Dallas Mavericks Western Conference semifinal round has won the previous five games.
With the No. 1-seed Suns up 3-2 in the key NBA betting series, the team can clinch in Game 6 Thursday in Dallas. The game tips off at 9:30 p.m. ET.
In NBA playoff games, No.1 seeds that covered the spread by 20 or more points in Game 5 are 4-1 straight-up and against the spread in Game 6.
So, initially, historical results with identical patterns to this series point to the Phoenix Suns winning and covering the spread.
In Game 5, the Mavericks held an eight-point lead at 38-30 in the middle of the second quarter. From that point on, the Suns outscored the Mavericks 80-42, going on to win 110-80 in a blowout.
In addition, the Suns outscored the Mavericks in the paint, 44-24.
Teams that outscored their Game 5 opponent in the paint by 15 or more points are 20-10-1 against the spread, for 67% winning bets, in Game 6 of the NBA playoffs. This, too, supports a trip to the ticket window to bet the Suns.
Also, Phoenix has been an incredible money maker in games played when they have won the battle of the boards.
Teams that out rebounded their opponent by double digits in Game 5 are 27-17 against the spread, for 61.4% winning bets, over the past 20 playoff seasons in Game 6 of a playoff series.
For these reasons, I am going to take the Phoenix Suns at -2.5 points, at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Other Bets I like Today
1. I like betting the Mavericks’ Luka Dončić Under 3.5 on made 3-pointers at -111, at BetMGM Sportsbook.
2. I like betting the Suns’ Mikal Bridges Over 15.5 on points and assists at -111, at DraftKings Sportsbook.
3. I like betting the Suns’ Devin Booker to have a triple-double at +9500, at FanDuel Sportsbook.
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