NBA Picks: Can Denver Slow OKC's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?

NBA Picks: Can Denver Slow OKC's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander?
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To help with your NBA betting, here are our picks for tonight's games. We'll start with our prop bet picks, then to our game picks.

 

Prop Bet Picks on Today's Schedule

Sportsbook Odds Bet Description
PointsBet +110 Nuggets’ Jamal Murray Over 16.5 points
DraftKings +700 Thunder’s Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to record a double-double
FanDuel +122 Warriors’ Stephen Curry Over 4.5 made 3-pointers

The player prop bets are 21-19 making $198.50 for the season wagering $50 per prop.  

Denver Nuggets at Oklahoma City Thunder

8 p.m. ET, NBATV

Line: Grizzlies –4.5; Total: 226.5 points 

I am betting on the Over 227.5 points at FanDuel

Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is playing at a high level that is worthy of MVP discussion. In six games, he is averaging 31.5 points, 6.8 assists, 4.9 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game. 

The Nuggets have been plagued by poor defensive effort in their road games, leading them to a 1-3 record. They have not played since losing to the Los Angeles Lakers Sunday and are well rested for a potential fast-paced matchup. 

The Nuggets' Michael Porter, Jr is making nearly 50% of his 3-pointers after shooting 42% for the first three seasons of his career.

Situational Trends and Angles 

  • The Nuggets are 27-12 Over when the total has been priced between 220 and 229.5 points over the past two seasons.
  • The Nuggets are 35-19 Over in games that have had a total of at least 220 points over the past two seasons.
  • My predictive model expects that both teams will shoot at least 48% from the field. When they do that, the Nuggets are 30-3 Over.
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