NBA Picks: Can Memphis Stay Hot? Can the Kings Get a Win?

Date IconLast Updated: Oct 3rd, 2023
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NBA Picks: Can Memphis Stay Hot? Can the Kings Get a Win?

To help with your NBA betting, here are our picks for tonight's games. We'll start with our prop bet picks, then to our game picks.

Player Prop Bet Picks for Tonight's Games

  • Bet the Kings De’Aaron Fox Over 26.5 points -104 at FanDuel. PointsBet, DraftKings, Caesars are priced at 25.5 points, but –130 vig.
  • Bet the Mavericks Luka Doncic to record a double-double -125 at DraftKings. FanDuel and BetMGM are priced at –125 or better.
  • Bet the Warriors Stephen Curry Over 4.5 made three pointers +116 at Caesars. DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, BetRivers, and Unibet have better vig.

The player prop bets are 14-15 making $42.50 for the season wagering $50 per prop.

Memphis Grizzlies at Sacramento Kings

7 p.m. ET

Line: Grizzlies –4 | Total: 237 points

Bet the Kings +4 and sprinkle the moneyline at +140 at BetMGM.

The Grizzlies begin a four-game road trip starting tonight against the Kings, who are 0-3 and one of three winless teams. The Grizzlies are 3-1.

Desmond Bane shot 13 of 49 (27%) from the field over the first three games, but broke out to score a career-high 38 points on 14 of 21 and 8 of 11 3-point shots in Memphis' last game. There is a high probability that he will have a below-average game tonight because players that have been in a shooting slump need more than one good game to move forward.

What are the Betting Markets Telling Us?

I like the fact the line opened with the Grizzlies as 4-point favorites and, despite accounting for 70% of the tickets bet on them, the line has drifted lower to masking them a 3-point favorite. 

Clearly, the larger professional bettors are more than offsetting the betting flows from the public wagers with 62% of the total take (total money bet) on the Kings.

The Predictive Models Support a Bet on the Kings

The current line and total reflect a 120.5-116.5 Grizzlies win. My predictive models expect the Kings to score at least 115 points and have a better assist-to-turnover ratio. 

In past home games in which the Kings met or exceeded these performance measures, they have a 42-20 record and 43-18-1 against the spread mark, good for 71% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

If the Kings were installed as a home dog in these games, they are 18-123 SU and 24-6-12 ATS, good for 80% winning bets over the past five seasons.

Situational Trends and Angles

  • Kings coach Mike Brown is 10-62 ATS after covering the spread in two of the last three games over his career.
  • The Kings are 18-10 ATS (64%) when priced as a dog and coming off a game against a divisional foe.