NBA Picks: Can the 76ers Bounce Back After Tough Stretch?

NBA Picks: Can the 76ers Bounce Back After Tough Stretch?
© USA Today

To help with your NBA betting, here are our picks for tonight's games. We'll start with our prop bet picks, then to our game picks.

Prop Bets to Consider Today

Sportsbook Odds Bet Description
FanDuel -100 Rockets' Jalen Green Under 21.5 points
FanDuel +2900 Magic's Franz Wagner to record a double-double
PointsBet +110 Raptors' Fred VanVleet Over 27.5 points, assists, rebounds
BetMGM -111 Thunder's Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 35.5 points and rebounds
PointsBet +125 Suns' Mikal Bridges Over 5.5 rebounds

The player prop bets are 64-55 making $813 for the season wagering $50 per prop. 

Philadelphia 76ers at Houston Rockets

8 p.m. ET 

Line: 76ers -7; Total: 222 points 

I am betting the 76ers -7 points at DraftKings.

The Philadelphia 76ers had won seven of their past nine games before starting a three-game road trip that has not gone well. 

They lost by 32 points to the Cleveland Cavaliers priced as four-point road underdogs Wednesday and then lost to the Memphis Grizzlies 117-109 as five-point road dogs Friday. 

NBA Model Predictions

The current betting markets reflect a 114.5-107.5 765ers win tonight. My predictive models show an 82% probability that the Rockets will not score more than 105 points and that the 76ers will have the better assist-to-turnover ratio. 

In past 76ers games in which they met or exceeded these performance measures have seen them earn an 83-9 straight-up (SU) record and a 74-17-1 against the spread (ATS) mark good for 81% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

The Rockets have been a money-burning 6-70 SU and 11-64-1 ATS, good for 15% winning bets when scoring 105 or fewer points and having the weaker assist-to-turnover ratio over the past five seasons.

Situational trends and angles

  • The Rockets are 12-30 ATS (21%) in home games when the total has been between 220 and 229.5 points over the past three seasons.
  • The Rockets are 7-23 ATS (23%) in home games following a game in which they failed to score more than 105 points over the past five seasons.
  • The Rockets are 8-21-1 ATS (28%) in home games coming off a road loss over the past three seasons.

Other Games to Consider Today

Phoenix Suns at Dallas Mavericks -3

  • Mavericks are 22-8 ATS (73%) when playing with same-season revenge over the last two seasons.

Oklahoma City +6 at Atlanta Hawks

  • Thunder is 15-7 ATS (68%) as a road dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the past two seasons.
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