NBA Picks: How to Bet on the Nets in First Game After Steve Nash Fired

NBA Picks: How to Bet on the Nets in First Game After Steve Nash Fired
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To help with your NBA betting, here are our picks for tonight's games. We'll start with our prop bet picks, then to our game picks.

Prop Bet Picks to Today's NBA Games 

Sportsbook Odds Prop Bet
FanDuel -128 Nets Ben Simmons Over 7.5 points
Caesars +102 Nets’ Ben Simmons Over 7.5 assists
BetMGM -120 Suns’ Devin Booker Over 33.5 points + assists
DraftKings +700 Timberwolves’ D’Angelo Russel records a double-double
Caesars -120 Magic’s Franz Wagner Over 26.5 points + assists + rebounds

The player prop bets are 16-17, making $29.50 for the season wagering $50 per prop. 

The Highest Percentage Team Situational Angles on the Card 

  • The Wolves are 12-1 Over (92%) when facing a foe outscoring their opponents by six or more points per game over the past two seasons.
  • The Heat are 11-1 Over (92%) when facing a foe from the Pacific Division over the past two seasons.
  • The Thunder are 26-7 ATS (79%) when facing a team scoring 108 or fewer points per game over the past two seasons.

Chicago Bulls at Brooklyn Nets 

7:30 p.m. ET, TNT

Line: Nets –1 Total: 234 points 

Bet the Nets using the moneyline at BetMGM

The Nets and the Bulls had expected to be off to better starts. The Bulls have been outscored by 30 points in the first quarter of their last two games that resulted in losses at the San Antonio Spurs and then on back-to-back nights at home to the Philadelphia 76ers. 

The Nets have been close, but haven't been able to close out games. They're coming off a 116-109 win against the visiting Pacers. I believe the Nets will look to start strong and repeat the solid execution they had on Monday to put back-to-back wins together for the first time this season. The sub-par start got coach Steve Nash fired on Tuesday.

What are the Betting Markets Telling Us? 

The current line favoring the Nets by one point with a total of 234 points implies a 117.5-116.5 Nets win. Early betting action is resulting in 37% of tickets bet and 80% of the money bet backing the Nets. 

The fact that there is a higher percentage of money bet than the percentage of tickets bet reflects the sharps and larger bettors are on the Bulls. That caused the line to dip from an opening of 2.5 to the current 1. Seeing the sharps on the Bulls this early could for the line lower, making the Bulls a favorite come game time.

The Predictive Models Support a Bet on the Under 

My predictive models expect the Nets to shoot at least 50% from the field and 40% from beyond the arc. Past home games in which the Nets achieved these performance measures have resulted in a 21-2 straight-up (SU) and 17-6 against the spread (ATS) record, good for 74% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

The Bulls are 1-22 SU and 3-19-1 ATS when allowing 50% or higher shooting and 40% or higher shooting from beyond the arc in road games played over the past five seasons.

Situational Trends and Angles 

  • The Bulls are 16-30 ATS (35%) when facing a solid shooting team making 46% or more of their shot attempts over the past two seasons.
  • The Nets are 42-20, making 18 units on the moneyline, off of a win that they did not cover the spread.
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