NBA Picks: How to Handle Back-to-Back With Hawks at Pistons

NBA Picks: How to Handle Back-to-Back With Hawks at Pistons
© USA Today

To help with your NBA betting, here are our picks for tonight's games. We'll start with our prop bet picks, then to our game picks.

 

Prop Bet Options for Tonight's NBA Games

Sportsbook Odds Prop Bet
FanDuel +330 Nets' Ben Simmons to record a double-double
Caesars -120 Rockets' Jalen Green Over 27.5 points + rebounds
BetRivers -124 Jazz forward Lauri Markkanen over 2.5 made three pointers
DraftKings -120 Lakers' LeBron James Under 46.5 points, rebounds, and assists
BetMGM -110 Spurs' Keldon Johnson Under 21.5 points

Atlanta Hawks at Detroit Pistons

7 p.m. ET

Line: Hawks –7.5 | Total: 229 points

Bet the Pistons plus the points and sprinkle the moneyline.

The Pistons are playing on back-to-back nights and coming off three straight road losses, but this puts them into an excellent contrarian best-bet opportunity tonight.

Betting on teams playing on back-to-backs that have lost three straight road games, have a 32-30 straight up (SU) record and 45-15-2 against the spread (ATS) mark for 75% winning bets since the start of the 2016 season. 

There is more data drilling to do though. If our team is installed as a dog between 3.5 and 9.5 points, they have gone to a 19-3 ATS record, good for 86.4% winning bets since 2016.

In a rare scheduling glitch these two teams will play two consecutive games against each other in Detroit starting tonight, then have a day off, then meet again on Friday. 

Thus far, the Hawks have been reliant on starters for most of their scoring. Trae Young leads the club in scoring (25.3 points per game) and assists (11.7). Backcourt partner Dejounte Murray is second in both categories (19.7, 8.3) while grabbing 7.3 rebounds per game and nabbing 3.3 steals per outing.

John Collins is averaging a double-double (19.0 points, 10.3 rebounds), but the highest-scoring reserve, Onyeka Okongwu, is averaging just 8.7 points. Charlotte's reserves outscored Atlanta's bench 52-28 in the Hawks' 126-109 road loss Sunday. The Detroit bench is much better than the Hawks right now, which gives them a terrific opportunity to earn an upset win tonight.

Situational Trends and Angles

  • The Pistons are 47-28 ATS following a game in which they scored 105 or more points in games played over the past three seasons.
  • The Hawks are 4-15 ATS in road games following a double-digit loss in games played over the past three seasons.
  • The Hawks are 12-24 ATS in road games where the total is greater than 220 points in games played over the past two seasons.

 

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