NBA Picks: Win Total Projections

NBA Picks: Win Total Projections
© USA Today

Four teams won 50 or more games in the Eastern Conference last season. As training camps get ready to open, we ask if the Miami Heat (53), Boston Celtics (51), Milwaukee Bucks (51), and Philadelphia 76ers (51) can pull off that feat again. 

In the Western Conference, there were four teams with 50 or more wins led by the Phoenix Suns who had the NBA-best 64 wins, Memphis Grizzlies with 56 wins, Golden State Warriors with 53 wins, and the Dallas Mavericks with 52 wins last season.

What are some win total bets to make for this season?

 

Boston Celtics 53.5 Wins

This year’s NBA wins totals for each team as offered at DraftKings show seven teams with win totals of 50 or more. The top team is the Boston Celtics with an over-under of 53.5 wins despite the loss of their head coach, Ime Udoka, because of a full-season suspension. 

Before that news, the Celtics' wins total was at 54.5 and the drop of just one game reflects how talented this edition will be during the upcoming season. 

I believe there is more of a chance they win 60 games versus winning fewer than 50 games. I like the Over 53.5 wins for the Celtics.

 

Philadelphia 76ers 50.5 Wins

The 76ers failed to advance past the second round of the playoffs, losing to the Miami Heat. This season, general manager Darryl Morey will be doing Darryl Morey things to acquire players in an effort to get to the Eastern Conference Finals for the first time since the 2001 season. 

The team's biggest need is rebounding. They ranked dead last in offensive rebounding as measured outside of garbage time situations and 25th in allowing 30% of their missed shots to be rebounded by the opponent leading to transition scoring opportunities.

The Sixers acquired DeAnthony Melton from the Memphis Grizzlies, who led all NBA guards getting 15% of missed shots on the defensive glass.  What I like most about the 76ers' defense is Melton ranked third in the league with a 2.3 steals per 36 minutes ratio and Matisse Thybulle ranked second.

So, I like betting Over 50.5 wins on the 76ers.

Some Other Wins Total I Like

  • Bet Under 48.5 wins on the Miami Heat.
  • Bet Under 45.5 wins on the Los Angeles Lakers (they can’t stay healthy).
  • Bet the Under 52.5 wins on the Phoenix Suns (Regression from last year’s 64-win season).
  • Bet the Over 23.5 wins on the Houston Rockets (tremendous draft).
  • Bet the Over 23.5 wins on the Oklahoma City Thunder (The best draft results).

 

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