NBA Title Odds Shift for Contenders After Trade Deadline
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The Kyrie Irving trade to the Dallas Mavericks was the first blockbuster trade domino to fall earlier in the NBA this week. Then, chaos ensued.
Kevin Durant was moved to Phoenix, giving the Suns one of the more dynamic perimeter groupings with Devin Booker, Chris Paul and Durant. The Los Angeles Lakers moved Russell Westbrook to bring in more shooting. Contenders such as the Milwaukee Bucks and Golden State Warriors added defensive help on the wings to bolster their lineups.
To help with your NBA betting, here’s a breakdown of the NBA title odds for the contenders who attempted to improve their teams before Thursday’s trade deadline.
Nuggets
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Thunder
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Mavericks
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NBA Title Odds for the Phoenix Suns +425 DraftKings Sportsbook
The Suns saw the biggest movement in their title odds following the deadline. Before the deal, the Suns were +1800 to win the NBA Finals. After securing Durant, those odds fell to +425. Phoenix’s Western Conference odds also saw movement, going from +800 to +230 following the trade.
It’s not unusual to see sportsbooks overreact with futures bettingwhen marquee players change teams. As exciting as it might be to dream of the potential of a lineup consisting of Paul, Booker, Durant, T.J. Warren and DeAndre Ayton, there are still concerns about this team.
Paul is older and has dealt with injuries, missing 21 games and is averaging the lowest point total of his career (13.7). Booker is still out with a groin injury, and Durant’s timetable to return from a knee injury is still uncertain. Depth is also a concern for Phoenix after Mikal Bridges and Cameron Johnson.
In addition to the health questions, the Suns must go through the process of getting accustomed to their new lineup with just a handful of games left and no definitive date for Durant and Booker to return. There are simply too many uncertainties to bet the Suns at this low number.
NBA Title Odds for the Milwaukee Bucks +600 DraftKings Sportsbook
Jae Crowder has yet to play this season after requesting a trade from Phoenix during the offseason. The 3-and-D wing got his wish when the Suns traded him to Milwaukee as part of a three-team deal. Crowder gives the Bucks another lengthy perimeter defender on the wing who can knock down shots from the perimeter. In his last three seasons, he shot 45%, 39% and 35% from 3 and will get more open looks as teams load up to stop Giannis Antetokounmpo.
DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbook reacted differently to the trade. A role player like Crowder typically doesn’t move the lines, but FanDuel dropped the Bucks' odds from +600 to +410 after the trade deadline, while DraftKings has remained at +600.
Out of the contenders, the Bucks are who I’d look to back right now. The team is getting healthy with Khris Middleton now playing regularly and Antetokounmpo dominating once again (32.3 points, 12.4 rebounds, 5.4 assists). Adding a wing defender and shooter should be a more seamless transition compared to the Suns, and there aren’t as many injury concerns.
Celtics
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Knicks
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Bucks
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NBA Title Odds for the Golden State Warriors +1500 DraftKings Sportsbook
Similar to Milwaukee, Golden State added perimeter defensive help by bringing back Gary Payton II. Payton was a member of the 2022 Golden State title team, providing defensive help and hustle plays to the Warriors. He signed with Portland in the offseason but missed the first 35 games of the season because of offseason surgery.
Steph Curry remains out through the All-Star break with a leg injury, and the Warriors currently sit ninth in the west at 28-27. Still, the team is just 1 ½ games behind the Dallas Mavericks for the fourth spot and we’ve seen this team go on runs when it was committed to winning and not just going through the motions.
FanDuel Sportsbook has the Warriors at +900 to win the West. I prefer this bet compared to the overall title odds. Golden State was +600 to win the championship before the season, so I would look to take the +900 to win the West. If Curry comes back from injury without any lingering issues and the team’s defense returns to form with Payton, this is a solid value bet.
NBA Title Odds for the Los Angeles Lakers +5000 DraftKings Sportsbook
Before the season started, I lamented the Lakers’ lack of shooting around LeBron James and it didn't get any better during the season. The Lakers rank 26th in 3-point shooting, making just 33% of their attempts. But Los Angeles remedied the issue before the deadline, adding D’Angelo Russell, Malik Beasley and Mo Bamba while sending away Patrick Beverly and Russell Westbrook.
Russell is converting 39% from 3-point range this season, while Bamba can space the floor as a big and also converts from deep at 39%. Beasley shoots the 10th-most 3s in the league per game, averaging 8.5 attempts and making 36%. Russell and Bamba’s percentages rank first and second in the Lakers’ rotation, while Beasley is at the same mark as Austin Reaves and Troy Brown Jr.
Instead of betting the Lakers at +5000 to win the title, I’d look at their playoff market. FanDuel Sportsbook has the Lakers at +245 to make the postseason. Los Angeles is currently 2 ½ games behind the Portland Trail Blazers for the last play-in spot, and James is still putting up MVP-type numbers, averaging 30.2 points, 8.5 rebounds and seven assists per game. More perimeter shooting and a vintage James-like run could allow the Lakers to make a final playoff push.
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