What's the Best Bet to Make on Golden State vs. Dallas in Game 5?

What's the Best Bet to Make on Golden State vs. Dallas in Game 5?
© USA Today

Golden State goes into Game 5 at Chase Center against the Dallas Mavericks 6-0 straight-up and 4-2 against the spread in home games. Today’s game tips off at 9 p.m. ET on TNT.

The NBA betting line opened with the Warriors as 7-point favorites and has seen more betting interest on the Mavericks, causing the line to dip to 6.5 points. The total opened at 216.5 points and has dropped to 215.5.

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Points in the Paint vs. 3-Point Scoring

The Warriors have outscored the Mavericks by 64 points in the paint area over the first four games of this series. 

Teams with three series wins in any playoff round that have outscored their opponents by 55 or more points scored in the paint are 7-8 SU and 7-6-2 against the spread, but a remarkably profitable 12-3 Under record, good for 75% winning bets. 

If these teams are playing at home, the Under is 6-0 and has gone Under the posted totals by 12 points per game.

The Mavericks have attempted 181 3-point shots over the first four games. Teams that are playing in Game 5 on out that have attempted 150 or more 3-pointers over the previous four games go on to a 24-29 SU record and 25-26-2 ATS, including a 34-19 Under record good for 64.2% winning Under wagers spanning the last 20 playoff seasons. 

If we now slice this data to include elimination games where the opponent had three series wins, the Under is 14-7 for 67% winning bets.

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What the Betting System Says

If you like a betting system that provides you with an abundance of betting opportunities, then take note of this one. 

The system has produced a 444-585 Over-Under record, good for 57% winning Under wagers spanning the past 25 regular seasons and playoffs. 

Bet the Under in a game with a total of at least 200 points, the road teams have lost two of their last three games in a matchup of winning record teams.

I will bet on the Under as offered by BetMGM Sportsbook at 215.5 points.

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Other Bets I Like Tonight

  • Bet K. Looney Over 10.5 points + assists at +100 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
  • Bet A. Wiggins Over 18.5 points + assists at -115 as offered at BetMGM.
  • Bet Dwight Powell Over 0.5 3-pointers made at +1200 as offered at DraftKings.
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