College Football Picks: Best Bets for Week 1

Date IconLast Updated: Sep 28th, 2023
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College Football Picks: Best Bets for Week 1
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Looking ahead to Week 1 of the college football betting season to give you wagering advice.

Oregon Ducks at Georgia Bulldogs

Mercedes Benz Stadium Atlanta, 2:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Line: Bulldogs –17 | Total: 54 points

The No. 3-ranked Bulldogs begin their national title defense against PAC-12 Oregon, which comes in ranked 11 at the Mercedes Benz Stadium in Atlanta. 

This matchup has been one of the most heavily bet games of the week with 65% of the tickets backing the Ducks. However, the line has not moved since opening at 17.5 points and that indicates that the largest bets made are on the Bulldogs.

What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share?

With a line favoring the Bulldogs by 17.5 points and a total of 54 points, that would indicate a Bulldog 35.75-18.25 win. My predictive mode shows a high probability that the Bulldogs will score at least 34 points in this game.

  • The Bulldogs are 68-3 straight-up (SU) and 33-25-1 against the spread (ATS), for 64% winning bets in games in which they scored 34 or more points over the past 10 seasons.
  • The Ducks are 13-25 SU and 5-32-1 ATS for 14% winning bets in games in which they allowed 34 or more points over the past 10 seasons.

I am betting the Bulldogs –17.5 points over the Ducks as offered at BetMGM.

Florida State Seminoles vs. LSU Tigers

Caesars Superdome New Orleans, Sunday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Line: Tigers –3 | Total: 50.5 points

LSU will launch the Brian Kelly era in this game against Florida State. The Seminoles beat Duquense 47-7 last week, but failed to cover the spread as 43.5-point favorites. The Tigers are suiting up for their first game of the season with both teams not ranked in the AP preseason poll.

In the win over Duquesne, the Seminoles had three 100-yard rushers for the first time in program history and I am confident they will execute a run-first offensive scheme that will provide dual-threat quarterback Jordan Travis with great opportunities to gain yards and move the chains. 

This type of attack takes a significant amount of time off the clock, and I do like the Under bet in this game.

What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share?

The following situational betting system supports a bet on the Under in this matchup. This system has earned a 52-28-2 record, good for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons.

  • Bet the Under when the total is between 49.5 and 56 points.
  • The game is a matchup of Major Division I Programs from the PAC-12, Big Ten, Big-12, ACC, or the SEC.
  • The game is being played at a neutral site.

I am going to the window betting the Under 51.5 as offered at BetMGM.