College Football Picks: Betting Advice for Penn State at Purdue

College Football Picks: Betting Advice for Penn State at Purdue
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Penn State Nittany Lions at Purdue Boilermakers

Ross-Ade Stadium | Thursday, 8 p.m. ET

Nittany Lions -3 | Total: 54.5 points

Penn State has Sean Clifford at quarterback for the fourth consecutive season, but for the first time does not have to learn a new playbook. 

Clifford has been part of the Penn State program for six seasons and the program has had four offensive coordinators who have moved on to head coaching positions. So, the spring season has been one of the best for coach James Franklin as they look to win 10 or more games this season.

Purdue won nine games for the first time since the 2003 season and was the only the second winning season in 10 years. 

Quarterback Aidan O’Connell threw for 534 yards with five touchdowns in a win over Tennessee in the Music City Bowl. Seven starters are returning on offense and eight on defense, so expectations for high for another step forward this season.

The Boilermakers have plenty of experience on offense but will be starting a redshirt freshman in Marcus Mbow at right guard. 

Penn State's defense will look to bring heavy blitzes from that side of the formation when the Boilermakers are in a throwing situation and on the left hashmark of the field.

Clifford has a new target in graduate transfer Mitchell Tinsley (6-foot-1, 210) from Western Kentucky, who will have significant advantages in speed and athleticism in man coverage situations against the Boilermakers. 

I do not believe the Boilermakers have the personnel to cover all of the offensive weapons that Clifford has at his disposal. The Nittany Lions will look to throw the ball all over the field using a multitude of spread formations and pre-snap looks.

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The NCAAF Big Ten Conference Angle of the Week for Week 1

The following situational betting parameters support a best bet on the Nittany Lions in this matchup and has produced a 32-10 against the spread (ATS) record, good for 76% winning bets over the past 30 seasons.

  • Bet on favorites of 3 to 9.5 points in the first four weeks of the season.
  • The favorite closed out the previous season with two or more losses.
  • The opponent closed out their last season with three or more wins.

I am betting the Penn State Nittany Lions -3 points -110 as offered at BetMGM.

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