College Football Picks: Betting Advice for Week 3

College Football Picks: Betting Advice for Week 3

Let's take a look at some games on this week's college football betting schedule to help with your wagering.

I am off to a 4-0 against the spread (ATS) winning streak with my college football picks here at Gambling.com. We don't expect to be undefeated, but let's see if we can keep winning this week.

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Marshall at Bowling Green 

Saturday, 5 p.m. ET, NFL Network

Line: Thundering Herd -16.5 | Total: 50.5 points

Marshall is coming off the biggest win in program history, defeating then No. 8 ranked Notre Dame 26-21, priced as 20.5-point road underdogs. 

Bowling Green is 0-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), with both games playing Over the posted total. 

The Thundering Herd is the direct opposite, with a 2-0 SU and ATS record and both games playing Under the posted total.

What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share?

A line favoring Marshall by 16.5 points and a total of 51 points imply a 33.75-17.25 win. My predictive mode shows a high probability that the Thundering Herd will score at least 31 points and gain at least 200 rushing yards in this game.

  • Marshall is 11-1 (SU) and 10-1-1 ATS for 92% winning bets when scoring 31 or more points and rushing for 200 or more yards in games played over the last 10 seasons.
  • Bowling Green is 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS for 18% winning bets in games it allowed 31 or more points and 200 or more rushing yards in games played over the past 10 seasons.

I am betting the Thundering Herd -16.5 points over the Falcons as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

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Louisiana-Lafayette at Rice

Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+

Line: Ragin’ Cajuns –11.5 | Total: 50.5 points

The total for this matchup opened at 52 points, and the betting community has been looking to bet the Under, driving the price lower to 50.5 points. I see it moving to 49.5 points.

A Highly Profitable NCAA Football Betting System

The following performance measures combine to produce a 61-30 record, good for 67% winning Under bets spanning the last five seasons. The requirements are:

  • Bet the Under at any total with one of the teams coming off a game in which they scored at least 50 points.
  • Our team is facing an opponent that scored three or fewer points in the first half of their previous game.
  • Plus, a subset of this dataset that if the total is priced at 49 or more points, the Under has produced a 51-25-2 record, good for 67.1% winning Under bets over the past five seasons.

I am betting the Under 50.5 points as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

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BYU at Oregon 

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox

Line: Ducks –3.5 | Total: 58 points

BYU is coming off a 26-20 win over Baylor and covered the spread as 2.5-point favorites. 

Oregon was destroyed by No. 1 Georgia 49-3, failing to cover the spread as a 16-point underdog. The Ducks bounced back against a vastly inferior foe defeating Eastern Washington 70-14, easily covering the spread as 27.5-point home favorites.

Situational Trends and Angles

  • The Ducks are 45-10 SU and 32-22-1 ATS for 59% winning bets following a game in which they outrushed their opponent by at least 125 rushing yards in games played since 2010.
  • The Ducks are 145-7-1 ATS for 67% winning bets following a game where they outrushed their opponent by 150 or more yards and scored 50 or more points in games played since 2010.

I am betting the Oregon Ducks –3 -110 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

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Extra Points

Here are a few more games to consider.

Bet Penn State –3.5 points at Auburn

  • Bet 50% of your bet amount before kick-off and then add the remaining 50% on Penn State at pick-em or better.

Bet Syracuse -1.5 points hosting Purdue

  • Bet 50% of your bet amount before kick-off and then add 25% on Syracuse priced as a 3.5-point underdog and the last 25% on Syracuse as a 5.5-point dog.

Bet the Over the first half total in the Fresno State at USC game

  • Bet Over the first half total of 31.5 points.
  • A team has covered the spread as a favorite in their two previous games.
  • Our team is facing an opponent coming off a home loss.

This has produced a 44-11-3 record, for 80% winning Over Bets in the past 10 seasons. 

Bet Georgia using the first-half line -13.5 points over South Carolina.

  • South Carolina is 4-15 ATS against SEC Conference foes when priced as an underdog on the first half line in games played over the last three seasons.

Bet Texas-San Antonio at Texas In-Game

  • Bet Texas using the live in-Game line if UTSA scores a touchdown first or makes two field goals before Texas scores a point.
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