College Football Picks: Betting Advice for Week 3
Let's take a look at some games on this week's college football betting schedule to help with your wagering.
I am off to a 4-0 against the spread (ATS) winning streak with my college football picks here at Gambling.com. We don't expect to be undefeated, but let's see if we can keep winning this week.
For Maryland Bettors: Caesars Sportsbook Maryland will soon go live when the online betting market is regulated. The launch is expected to occur in December 2022.
Marshall at Bowling Green
Saturday, 5 p.m. ET, NFL Network
Line: Thundering Herd -16.5 | Total: 50.5 points
Marshall is coming off the biggest win in program history, defeating then No. 8 ranked Notre Dame 26-21, priced as 20.5-point road underdogs.
Bowling Green is 0-2 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS), with both games playing Over the posted total.
The Thundering Herd is the direct opposite, with a 2-0 SU and ATS record and both games playing Under the posted total.
What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share?
A line favoring Marshall by 16.5 points and a total of 51 points imply a 33.75-17.25 win. My predictive mode shows a high probability that the Thundering Herd will score at least 31 points and gain at least 200 rushing yards in this game.
- Marshall is 11-1 (SU) and 10-1-1 ATS for 92% winning bets when scoring 31 or more points and rushing for 200 or more yards in games played over the last 10 seasons.
- Bowling Green is 1-10 SU and 2-9 ATS for 18% winning bets in games it allowed 31 or more points and 200 or more rushing yards in games played over the past 10 seasons.
I am betting the Thundering Herd -16.5 points over the Falcons as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Louisiana-Lafayette at Rice
Saturday, 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Line: Ragin’ Cajuns –11.5 | Total: 50.5 points
The total for this matchup opened at 52 points, and the betting community has been looking to bet the Under, driving the price lower to 50.5 points. I see it moving to 49.5 points.
A Highly Profitable NCAA Football Betting System
The following performance measures combine to produce a 61-30 record, good for 67% winning Under bets spanning the last five seasons. The requirements are:
- Bet the Under at any total with one of the teams coming off a game in which they scored at least 50 points.
- Our team is facing an opponent that scored three or fewer points in the first half of their previous game.
- Plus, a subset of this dataset that if the total is priced at 49 or more points, the Under has produced a 51-25-2 record, good for 67.1% winning Under bets over the past five seasons.
I am betting the Under 50.5 points as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
BYU at Oregon
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox
Line: Ducks –3.5 | Total: 58 points
BYU is coming off a 26-20 win over Baylor and covered the spread as 2.5-point favorites.
Oregon was destroyed by No. 1 Georgia 49-3, failing to cover the spread as a 16-point underdog. The Ducks bounced back against a vastly inferior foe defeating Eastern Washington 70-14, easily covering the spread as 27.5-point home favorites.
Situational Trends and Angles
- The Ducks are 45-10 SU and 32-22-1 ATS for 59% winning bets following a game in which they outrushed their opponent by at least 125 rushing yards in games played since 2010.
- The Ducks are 145-7-1 ATS for 67% winning bets following a game where they outrushed their opponent by 150 or more yards and scored 50 or more points in games played since 2010.
I am betting the Oregon Ducks –3 -110 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Bet Penn State –3.5 points at Auburn
- Bet 50% of your bet amount before kick-off and then add the remaining 50% on Penn State at pick-em or better.
Bet Syracuse -1.5 points hosting Purdue
- Bet 50% of your bet amount before kick-off and then add 25% on Syracuse priced as a 3.5-point underdog and the last 25% on Syracuse as a 5.5-point dog.
Bet the Over the first half total in the Fresno State at USC game
- Bet Over the first half total of 31.5 points.
- A team has covered the spread as a favorite in their two previous games.
- Our team is facing an opponent coming off a home loss.
This has produced a 44-11-3 record, for 80% winning Over Bets in the past 10 seasons.
Bet Georgia using the first-half line -13.5 points over South Carolina.
- South Carolina is 4-15 ATS against SEC Conference foes when priced as an underdog on the first half line in games played over the last three seasons.
Bet Texas-San Antonio at Texas In-Game
- Bet Texas using the live in-Game line if UTSA scores a touchdown first or makes two field goals before Texas scores a point.
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