College Football Picks: Betting Advice for Week 5

College Football Picks: Betting Advice for Week 5
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So far, we're off to a good start at Gambling.com with college football betting picks. 

I have a 7-1 record against the spread (ATS) record and 14-2 ATS in the @Gambling_com sports betting contest to start things off.  

Let's see if we can keep the hot streak going.

 

No. 9 Oklahoma State at No. 16 Baylor 

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, Fox

Line: Bears -2 | Total: 56.5 points

This is a rematch of last season’s Big-12 Championship game won by the Bears 21-16. You can bet that the Cowboys will be coming into McClane Stadium with a bad taste in their mouths.

The game time temperature will be 80 degrees, with hardly any wind. 

What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share?

A line favoring the Bears by two points and a total of 56 points would imply a 29-27 Baylor win. My predictive mode shows a high probability that the Cowboys will score at least 27 points, will have the edge in time of possession and have the same or fewer turnovers in this game.

The Bears are17-35 straight up (SU), 12-38-1 against the spread (ATS) for 24% winning bets and 33-17-1 Over-Under when allowing 27 or more points, have the same or more turnovers and less time of possession over the past 15 seasons.

The Cowboys are 40-5 SU, 32-8-4 ATS for 80% winning bets and 22-22 Over-Under when scoring 27 or more points, having the edge in TOP, and having the same or fewer turnovers over the past 15 seasons.

I am betting the Cowboys +2 points over the Bears as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

No. 22 Wake Forest at No. 23 Florida State 

Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

Line : Seminoles -7 | Total : 64.5 points

Florida State will look to improve to 5-0 for the first time since the 2012 season. 

The Seminoles are ranked for the first time in four seasons, bringing back memories of the glory seasons under legendary coach Bobby Bowden. They have exceeded expectations with wins over Louisville, LSU and Boston College. 

Wake Forest is coming off its first loss of the season, a 51-45 overtime thriller at Clemson, but did manage to cover the spread as seven-point underdogs.

The Predictive Model Projections

My predictive model is expects the Demon Deacons to gain at least 5.25 yards per play and to contain the Seminoles to fewer than 28 points. 

Wake Forest is 48-5 SU, 29-12-1 ATS for 77% winning bets and 21-30-1 Over-Under when allowing fewer than 28 points and gaining an average of 5.25 yards per play over the past 10 seasons.

The Seminoles are 8-36 SU and 7-36-1 ATS for 16% winning bets when scoring fewer than 28 points and allowing 5.25 yards per play over the last 10 seasons.

I am betting Wake Forest +7 points that is offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

Quick Kicks

Here are some other college football bets to consider this weekend.

Bet on UCLA +3 points over Washington

  • Bet 50% of your bet amount before kickoff and then add the remaining 50% on UCLA +9.5 or more during the first half action only.

Bet on Illinois +7 over Wisconsin

  • Bet 50% of your bet amount before kickoff and then add 25% at +9.5 and the remaining 25% at +11.5 points during the first half action only.

Bet on Mississippi -7 points over Kentucky

  • Home Favorite of -6.5 to -9.5 points in a matchup of Top 25 teams is 33-7 SU, 24-13-3 ATS for 65% winning bets since 2015.

 

 

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