College Football Picks: Can Syracuse Bounce Back Against Notre Dame?

College Football Picks: Can Syracuse Bounce Back Against Notre Dame?

An intriguing matchup for college football betting players to ponder is if Syracuse can stay upbeat against a Notre Dame team that needs a win. 

We'll hit that and some other big games on the schedule.

 

Notre Dame at No. 16 Syracuse

Saturday, Noon ET, ABC

Line: Syracuse -2.5 points | Total: 48 points

I am betting the Syracuse -2.5 points as offered at BetMGM.

Syracuse had Clemson on the ropes last week, leading 21-10 entering the fourth quarter before falling. Can the Orange bounce back?

After an 0-2 start, Notre Dame has won four of its last five games and looks to get back into the Top 25 if it can win big at Syracuse. 

However, it is not that easy. The Irish is coming off a 44-21 win over UNLV but failed to cover the spread as 26-point favorites. 

Syracuse has the 10th-best scoring defense in the nation, allowing 17.7 points per game. It also has the 11th best opponents-points-per-play ratio at .256, and the 14th-best red zone scoring defense.

Syracuse is the better team on both sides of the ball and only the hype of Notre Dame bettors keeps this line from being fairly priced at 4.5 points.

What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share?

A line favoring Syracuse by 2.5 points and a total of 48 points implies a 25-23 Syracuse win.

My predictive model shows a high probability that Notre Dame will score 24 or fewer points and have the same or more turnovers in this game.

  • Notre Dame is 10-17 straight up (SU) and 8-19 against the spread (ATS) (30%) when scoring 24 or fewer points and having the same or more turnovers than their opponent in games played over the past 10 seasons.
  • Syracuse is 29-5 SU and 31-3 ATS (91%) when allowing 24 or fewer points and having the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past 10 seasons.

Quick Kicks

Here are some other games to consider betting on this weekend.

Take Tennesse -12 points over Kentucky

Take Rice -16.5 points over Charlotte

  • Bet 50% of your bet amount before kickoff and then add the remaining 50% on Rice -7.5 full game or lower during the first half.

Take the Over at 76.5 points in the USC at Arizona game.

Take the Under 43.5 points in the Colorado State at Boise State game

Take UCLA -16.5 points over Stanford

  • Stanford is 2-10 ATS when taking on a foe that is averaging 58% or better passing completion percentage.
  • UCLA has a 7-0 ATS win streak when playing a losing record team.

 

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