College Football Picks: How Does LSU Keep Momentum after Big Win

College Football Picks: How Does LSU Keep Momentum after Big Win

LSU pulled off a big win against Alabama last week, so how do the Tigers follow that? We'll look at their game and others on this week's schedule to get you ready for your college football betting.

No. 7 LSU Tigers at Arkansas Razorbacks 

Saturday, Noon ET, ESPN 

Line: LSU -3.5 points | Total: 62 points 

For the second consecutive week, the SEC dominates the marquee ‘must-watch’ matchup on the Week 11 card. 

Last week, I was on LSU plus the 13.5 points and recommended a sprinkle on the moneyline and the Tigers came through with a monumental upset 32-31 win over then No. 6 Alabama. 

So, when the market opened with LSU priced as a 3.5-point road favorite against Arkansas I did a double take as I was expecting a number closer to 6 or 6.5 points. 

What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share? 

A line favoring LSU by 3.5 points and a total of 62 points implies a 32.75-29.25 win. My predictive model shows a high probability that LSU will score at least 28 points and have the same or fewer turnovers in this game. 

  • LSU is 30-3 straight up and 25-7-1 against the spread (78%) in games scoring 28 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers than their opponent in games played over the past 5 seasons.
  • Arkansas is 1-28 SU and 8-21 ATS (28%) when allowing 28 or more points and having the same or more turnovers in games played over the past five seasons.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy 

Totals that are priced above 60 points will feature greater volatility on the scoreboard meaning both teams can achieve multiple scores before the opponent answers. 

So, if you like LSU consider betting 50% of your regular amount pre-flop. Next, look for Arkansas to score a touchdown first (a field goal does not count). If Arkansas takes a 7-0 or 10-0 lead (kicked field goal before the touchdown) the preferred strategy would be to add the remaining 50% or your normal bet amount on the available point spread on LSU. 

More Games to Consider This Week

Here are some other games to consider betting on this week's schedule. 

Penn State -10 over Maryland 

  • Maryland is 1-9 ATS when facing a team with a winning record over the past three seasons.

USC -34 over Colorado 

  • USC is 10-1 ATS when facing a foe that has been outscored by 10 or more points per game.

The Under 37.5 points in the Air Force at New Mexico game 

Navy on the first-half line +9 points over Notre Dame 

  • Navy is 7-0 against the first-half line after having covered the spread in two of their last three games.

 

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