College Football Picks: TCU Looks to Maintain CFP Spot

College Football Picks: TCU Looks to Maintain CFP Spot
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TCU maintained its hold on the fourth playoff spot with a statement 17-10 win at the rival Texas Longhorns. 

With the win, the Horned Frogs clinched a berth in the Big 12 Championship game, solidifying their path to the College Football Playoff. Win out, and they're in. That path starts Saturday at Baylor before hosting Iowa State and the conference title matchup. 

Here's a preview on TCU's next game and other key college football betting matchups.

 

No.4 TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears  

Noon EDT, November 19, 2022 

Line: TCU -2.5 points | Total: 58 points 

For the second week in a row, the TCU Horned Frogs have been ranked No.4 in the nation by the College Football Playoff committee, but they are going to have their hands more than full going on the road to take on the Baylor Bears. TCU has covered the spread ( in four consecutive games and came off a most-impressive 17-10 win over the Texas Longhorns as a road underdog of 7.5 points last week. Baylor is coming off a humiliating 31-3 home loss to Kansas State and failed to cover the spread as 2.5-point favorites.  

What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share? 

Given a line favoring TCU by 2.5 points and a total of 57.5 points implies a 30-27.5 TCU win. My predictive model shows a high probability that TCU will score 27 or fewer points and have the same or more turnovers in this game. 

  • TCU is 3-16 SU (16%) and 2-17 ATS (11%) in games scoring 27 or fewer points and having the same or more turnovers than their opponent in games played over the past five seasons. 
  • Baylor is 26-6 SU (81%) and 23-8-1 ATS (74%) when allowing 27 or fewer points and having the same or fewer turnovers in games played over the past five seasons. 

Live In-Game Betting Strategy 

With a current total of 57.5 points, there will be the potential for multiple scores by the same team before the other team answers back with its own score. So, consider betting Baylor with 50% of your standard bet size at +2.5 points and then look for TCU to score the first touchdown (not a field goal) and then look to add the remaining 50% bet amount at 6.5 or more points using the Live betting lines. 

I am betting on the Baylor Bears plus the 2.5 points as offered at BetRivers. 

Quick Kicks 

Here are some other teams on my radar to bet on this weekend. 

Take Oregon –4.5 points over Oregon State 

Take USC on the the moneyline over UCLA 

Take the Under 68 points in the Houston vs East Carolina game. 

  • Houston is 27-10 Under after two or more consecutive losses spanning the last 10 seasons. 
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