College Football Picks: 'Third Saturday in October' Analysis and Prediction
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There are some big games in college football this weekend, including the traditional "Third Saturday in October" clash in Knoxville between Tennessee and Alabama, the biggest game in this rivalry in years. Both teams are ranked in the Top 10.
We'll hit that and some other big games this week to help with your college football betting.
No. 3 Alabama at No. 8 Tennessee
Saturday, 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS
Line: Tide –7.5 | Total: 65.5 points
A line favoring Alabama by 7.5 points and a total of 65.5 points would indicate a 36.5-29 Alabama win.
My predictive model shows a high probability that the Volunteers will score at least 27 points and have the same or fewer turnovers in this game.
- Tennessee is 13-2 straight-up (SU), 11-3-1 against the spread (ATS) for 79% winning bets when scoring 27 or more points, have the same or fewer turnovers, and in games with a posted total of 60 or more points.
- Alabama is 8-15 SU and 3-19-1 ATS for 14% winning bets when allowing 27 or more points and having the same or more turnovers; 2-18 ATS under head coach Nick Saban.
I am betting the Tennessee +7.5 points as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
No. 10 Penn State at No. 5 Michigan
Noon ET, Fox
Line: Michigan -7 | Total: 51.5 points
Jim Harbaugh took over the Michigan program at the start of the 2015 season after being the head coach of Stanford from 2007 to 2010.
In that time, he has not been a money-maker when facing undefeated foes. His teams have a 17-14 SU record and 11-20 against the spread record for 36% winning bets, including an 18-13 Over-Under record good for 58% winning Over bets.
While at Michigan, he is 11-8 SU, 6-13 ATS for 32% winning bets including a 10-9 Over-Under record when facing an undefeated foe.
Plus, when facing a foe with any kind of record that is coming off the BYE week, Harbaugh is just 2-5 SU and ATS.
Situational Trends and Angles
- Harbaugh is 3-6 ATS when undefeated with five or more wins at Michigan.
- Penn State coach James Franklin is 16-1-1 ATS coming off a win that his team didn't cover the spread.
- Franklin is 17-9 ATS when coming off a double-digit win over a conference foe.
I am betting Penn State +7 points at -110 with Caesars Sportsbook.
Quick Kicks
Here are more games to consider this weekend.
Bet on the Minnesota Gophers -6.5 points over the Fightin’ Illini
- Bet 50% of your bet amount before kickoff and then add the remaining 50% on Minnesota -2.5 or lower during the first half only.
Bet on the Kansas Jayhawks +9 points over the Oklahoma Sooners
Bet the Over at 46 points in the MAC Conference matchup between Miami (Ohio) and Bowling Green
Bet on the California Golden Bears -14.5 points over the Colorado Buffalos
- Cal coach Justin Wilcox is 15-7-1 ATS when coming off a game that played Under the total.
Bet on the Georgia Bulldogs -22 points using the first-half betting line over the Vanderbilt Commodores
- Georgia coach Kirby Smart is 21-4 ATS on the first-half betting line coming off a home win of 17 or more points.
I have produced a 14-3 record against the spread in these college football picks.
I am 22-7 ATS in the Gambling.com sports betting contest and the leader, but the rest of the guys are starting to make moves to close the gap.
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