Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis and Predictions

Date IconLast Updated: Sep 21st, 2023
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Los Angeles Rams at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Analysis and Predictions
© USA Today

The Tampa Bay Bucs will try to get their sixth consecutive playoff win Sunday when they host the Rams at 2 p.m. ET.

If they do, they would equal the total number of playoff wins in the 44-year franchise history before the arrival of Tom Brady.

The Los Angeles Rams are in all-in mode to win the Super Bowl this season and are coming off a 34-11 win over their divisional rival Cardinals in the Wild Card Round, holding Arizona to just 183 total yards of offensive production.

The Bucs lost 34-24 to the Rams in Week 3 action and failed to cover the spread as 1-point road favorites.

Brady is making his 46th playoff start, adding to his NFL record. But in only two playoff games has he faced an opponent he lost to in the regular season. Brady is 2-0 straight-up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) in the two rematches.

In the regular season, the 44-year old Brady exceeded even his previous great seasons of his sure-to-be unanimous Hall-of Famer. He led the NFL passing for 5,316 yards completing 485 passes on 719 pass attempts, which were both league-highs. He completed 47 more passes than the second-best quarterback in that category, Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers.

Brady’s accomplishments were not done with more short pass completions than deeper vertical routes as he had done so many times with the New England Patriots. He ranked ninth, averaging 8.1 in intended air yards per attempt. This metric measures the average depth of the target when the pass was completed or not.

The two best quarterbacks in the NFL in terms of passing yards gained beyond the line of scrimmage are in this game. Brady, again, ranks No. 1, having passed for 2,762 yards, which is the total yards the ball traveled beyond the line of scrimmage before the ball was caught.

Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for two yards fewer than Brady, gaining 2,760 yards. However, Brady, who led the NFL throwing 531 passes that were on target, was 73 more passes than the sixth-best 458 passes by Stafford.

The Bucs offensive line and their backups have been the best in the NFL this season. Brady was sacked just 22 times and hit just 31 times for the 17-game regular season.

In play action, Brady was exceptional, gaining 912 passing yards on 113. Last season, Brady executed 110 play-action passes, gained 1,119 yards, and threw 124 passes in play action schemes, gaining 980 yards in 2019. So, you can see the overall consistency from year-to-year and reflects defenses choosing not to blitz him.

If you like backing the Rams in this Divisional Playoff matchup, then check out the following coaching situations that are sure to bring a smile to your face. Sean McVay is 11-1-1 ATS in road games after failing to cover the spread in two of their last three games and 20-8-1 ATS when coming off a divisional matchup.

This game has the potential to be won in overtime.