Monday Night Football Picks: Can Chicago Surprise the Patriots?

Author Image Article By John Ryan GDC - Icon - Black - Info
Date IconLast Updated: 
Share On Your Network
Monday Night Football Picks: Can Chicago Surprise the Patriots?
© USA Today

To help with your NFL betting ahead of the MNF game tonight, check out how the predictive models see the game.

Chicago Bears at New England Patriots

8:20 p.m. ET, ESPN

Line: Patriots –9 | Total: 40 points

I am betting on the Bears +9 points as offered at BetMGM.

The Bears (2-4 straight-up, 2-3-1 against the spread, 2-4 Over-Under) will play the Patriots (3-3 SU, 4-2 ATS, 3-3 Over-Under) at Gillette Stadium tonight. 

Prop Bet Picks

For the season, player prop bets are 36-22 for 62% winning bets, making $1,080 per $50 bet.

Sportsbook Odds Prop Bet
BetMGM -105 Patriots’ Mac Jones Over 1.5 passing TDs
Caesars +100 Bears’ David Montgomery Over 50.5 rushing yards
FanDuel +400 Bears’ Darnell Mooney to score a touchdown

Game Situational Trends and Angles

Professional sports bettors look for contrarian opportunities that feature a struggling road team. Here are some situational trends and angles that support a betting opportunity on the Bears. 

My predictive model utilizes many different forms of machine learning and projects the Bears will have the same or fewer turnovers as New England and will gain at least 150 rushing yards.

  • In past games, the Bears are 12-4 SU and 12-3-1 ATS, for 80% winning bets, when meeting or exceeding those performance projections in games played over the last five seasons.
  • The Patriots are 3-14 ATS for 18% when allowing 150 or more rushing yards and having the same or more turnovers than their opponents in games played over the past five seasons.

Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages.

Updated by GDC - Icon - Black - Info

John Ryan

Last Updated Icon

Last Updated:  

Facebook Icon Twitter Icon Linkedin Icon Email Icon Copy Link Icon