NFL Betting Advice: Preseason Week 3 Picks

NFL Betting Advice: Preseason Week 3 Picks
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After a 4-1 record in our Week 1 picks, we’re back to break down the NFL preseason games.

Let’s get right into it to help with your NFL betting.

 

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Carolina Panthers at New England Patriots

Today, 7 p.m. ET

Patriots -5.5 | Total: 40 points

The New England Patriots announced they would play their starters for an extended time, which has pushed the line from the Patriots being a 1-point home dog to a 5.5-point favorite. 

The total has edged slightly higher to 40 points and I like selling into this move by betting the Under 40 points. The reason: 60% of the tickets bet and 80% of the money wagered is excessive and provides us with a contrarian betting opportunity on the Under.

 

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Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET

Lions -3 | Total: 39.5 points

Earlier this week, these teams had a joint practice that got physical with near continuous verbal sparring among the competitors. Lions quarterback Jared Goff struggled at first against a different defensive unit, but then finished well and looked quite sharp in his decision-making. For that reason,

I like betting on the Lions, who will be a better team than in recent seasons behind a significantly better defense.

Betting on winless home teams in the preseason has produced a 33-12 against the spread (ATS) record good for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons. I am betting the Detroit Lions as a three-point favorite.

 

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Dallas Cowboys at L.A. Chargers

Saturday, 10 p.m. ET

Chargers -3 | Total: 37.5 points

Both teams lost their first preseason game and as the following situational angles reveal, the Cowboys are the team I believe will win this game and possibly by double digits.

Betting on road teams in the preseason that are priced between a 3-point favorite and a 3-point underdog following a game in which they committed one or fewer turnovers has earned a 38-17-1 ATS record good for 69% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. I am betting the Cowboys receiving three points.

 

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Pittsburgh Steelers at Jacksonville Jaguars

Saturday, 7 p.m. ET

Jaguars -2 | Total: 42.5 points

The Jacksonville Jaguars' new coach Doug Pederson will be looking to get his team the win after losing their first two preseason games. He won a Super Bowl with the Philadelphia Eagles and his veteran coaching experience is invaluable to this young team heading into the regular season.

Nothing builds a positive culture more than winning and I see this game as one that Pederson will play to win. However, I believe there is a better bet on the Under in this matchup.

Betting the Under in a preseason NFL game with any team, in this case, the Steelers, that is facing a conference foe and is coming off a game against a non-conference foe has produced a 30-9-1 Under, record good for 78% winning bets over the past 10 seasons. I am betting the Under at 42.5 or higher.

 

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Tennessee Titans

Saturday, 7 p.m. ET

Titans -3 | Total: 38.5 points

I like the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in this matchup against the Tennessee Titans and here is one of the reasons why. 

Betting on road dogs in the NFL preseason that are facing a host coming off a road game has earned a highly profitable 38-14-1 ATS for 73% winning bets over the last five seasons.

I will bet the Tampa Bay Bucs receiving three points.

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