NFL Betting: AFC East Situation Angles

Article By John Ryan

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John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

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Last Updated: Mar 14^th, 2024

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Here is an NFL analytical resource that provides the top situational angles, spanning the past 10 seasons that many teams will find themselves in through the 2022 season. 

These are starting points to the handicapping process each week of the NFL season. 

As you will see below "Best Situational Angle" means that the angle might be a high winning or low losing percentage for the team and situation involved.

Established 2018

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AFC East

Buffalo Bills

• 8-3 against the spread (ATS) for 73% when playing at home and having previously defeated the current opponent in the same season.
• 10-5 Under for 67% when on the road following back-to-back losses and facing a host with a winning record.
• 4-8-1 ATS for 33% playing with revenge from a double-digit loss to a divisional opponent.
• 13-7 Under for 65% when priced as an underdog and coming off three games in which they covered the spread by a combined total of 14 or more points.
• 7-2 ATS for 78% having lost three or more consecutive games against the spread.

Miami Dolphins

• 2-13-1 ATS for 13% with wins greater than or equal to losses and coming off two consecutive games allowing 28 or more points in each game.
• 7-0 Under when facing a divisional foe that they defeated in the previous matchup and with that opponent coming off a straight-up (SU) loss.
• 4-12-1 ATS for 25% when on the road following back-to-back losses and facing a host with a winning record.
• 2-6 ATS for 33% when coming off a Monday Night Game.
• 7-3-1 SARS for 70% when priced as the favorite against a conference opponent that defeated them by double-digits in the previous meeting.

New England Patriots

• 18-5 ATS for 78% coming off a game against a divisional foe and having scored in every quarter.
• 47-24-3 ATS for 66% after Week 4 and when having the better (more efficient) yards-per-point ratio and favored by at least six points.
• 14-4-1 Under for 78% in road games and facing an opponent that has lost 67% of their games in the current season.
• 29-13-1 ATS for 69% when coming off a win over a divisional opponent.
• 13-5-1 ATS for 72% when playing at home and having previously defeated the current opponent in the same season.

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New York Jets

• 12-6 ATS for 67% coming off two consecutive games failing to score a rushing touchdown.
• 8-17-1 Under for 68% when coming off a game in which their defense allowed 34 or more points.
• 3-9 ATS for 25% when coming off a win over a divisional opponent.
• 5-13-1 ATS for 28% when on the road following back-to-back losses and facing a host with a winning record.
• 3-11 ATS for 21% in home games playing with revenge and with that opponent coming off a straight-up (SU) loss priced as the favorite.

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Url copied!

John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

Read Full Bio

John Ryan

Last Updated:   Mar 14^th, 2024

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