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NFL Betting: AFC South Situation Angles

NFL Betting: AFC South Situation Angles
© USA Today

Here is an NFL analytical resource that provides the top situational angles, spanning the past 10 seasons that many teams will find themselves in through the 2022 season. 

These are starting points to the handicapping process each week of the NFL season. 

As you will see below "Best Situational Angle" means that the angle might be a high winning or low losing percentage for the team and situation involved.

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AFC South

Houston Texans

  • 14-5-23 Over for 74% when coming off two consecutive games failing to score a touchdown.
  • 4-10 ATS for 29% after Week 4 and facing an elite offense posting a yards-per-point ratio of 13.0 or lower.
  • 11-3 Under for 79% when on the road following back-to-back losses and facing a host with a winning record.
  • 5-12 against the spread (ATS) for 29% when priced as the underdog and facing an opponent that defeated them by double-digits in their previous meeting.

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Indianapolis Colts

  • 8-17 ATS for 32% when coming off a game in which they scored a non-offensive touchdown.
  • 18-9 ATS for 67% when coming off a game in which their defense allowed 34 or more points.
  • 18-9 Under for 67% when coming off a game in which their defense allowed 34 or more points.
  • 13-5-1 ATS for 72% priced as a favorite and coming off a game in which their defense held that opponent to 25% or lower third-down conversions.
  • 14-5-1 Under for 74% after Week 4 and when having the better (more efficient) yards-per-point ratio and favored by at least six points.

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Jacksonville Jaguars

  • 11-5-1 Over for 69% when coming off a win over a divisional opponent.
  • 3-7 ATS when on the road and facing a host coming off a loss in which they were the favorite.
  • 3-7 ATS for 30% in home games playing with revenge and with that opponent coming off a straight-up (SU) loss priced as the favorite.
  • 8-16 SATS for 33% in home games and revenging a double-digit loss to a conference opponent.
  • 5-10 ATS coming off two consecutive games losing to the spread by double-digits in each one.

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Tennessee Titans

  • 6-14-1 for 30% when coming off a game in which they scored a non-offensive touchdown.
  • 10-4-1 Over for 71% after Week 4 and facing an elite offense posting a yards-per-point ratio of 13 or lower.
  • 6-15-1 SATS for 71% in road games and facing an opponent that has lost 67% of their games in the current season.
  • 1-9 ATS for 10% in games preceding a game coming up on Thursday Night Football.
  • 7-15-1 ATS for 32% in home games and revenging a double-digit loss to a conference opponent.
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