NFL Betting: AFC West Situation Angles

Article By John Ryan

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John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

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Last Updated: Mar 14^th, 2024

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Here is an NFL analytical resource that provides the top situational angles, spanning the past 10 seasons that many teams will find themselves in through the 2022 season. 

These are starting points to the handicapping process each week of the NFL season. 

As you will see below "Best Situational Angle" means that the angle might be a high winning or low losing percentage for the team and situation involved.

Established 2013

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AFC West

Denver Broncos

• 14-5 against the spread (ATS) for 74% when playing their third consecutive game against a divisional foe.
• 3-10 ATS for 23% with wins greater than or equal to losses and coming off two consecutive games allowing 28 or more points in each game.
• 14-7 SATS for 67% in road games and facing an opponent that has lost 67% of their games in the current season.
• 3-7 ATS for 30% in home games playing with revenge and with that opponent coming off a straight-up (SU) loss priced as the favorite.
• 9-3 Over following a Monday Night game.

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Kansas City Chiefs

• 14-7-1 Under for 67% when coming off a game in which their defense allowed 34 or more points.
• 11-5-1 ATS for 69% when coming off two consecutive games in which they gained five or more rushing yards per attempt in each game.
• 11-20-1 ATS for 35% following two consecutive games in which they passed for 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt.
• 10-5 Over for 67% in road games and facing an opponent that has lost 67% of their games in the current season.
• 11-6 ATS for 65% when playing at home and having previously defeated the current opponent in the same season.

Los Angeles Chargers

• 13-5-1 ATS for 72% in road games following two consecutive games in which they failed to score a touchdown.
• 8-18 ATS for 31% when coming off a game in which they scored a non-offensive touchdown.
• 8-16 ATS for 33% following two consecutive games in which they passed for 7.5 or more yards per pass attempt.
• 2-7 ATS for 22% when facing a divisional foe that they defeated in the previous matchup and with that opponent coming off a straight-up (SU) loss.
• 11-4-1 ATS for 73% when on the road following back-to-back losses and facing a host with a winning record.

Las Vegas Raiders

• 8-15 ATS for 35% when coming off three or more consecutive ATS and SU wins.
• 1-9 ATS following three or more ATS wins and now favored against a divisional foe.
• 17-6 Over for 73% with a .500 record or better on the season and coming off two consecutive games allowing 28 or more points in each game.
• 2-7 ATS for 22% when on the road and facing a host coming off a loss priced as a favorite.
• 3-7 ATS in games that precede a game on their schedule for Thursday Night Football.
• 3-8 ATS for 27% when coming off a Monday Night game.

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John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

Read Full Bio

John Ryan

Last Updated:   Mar 14^th, 2024

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