NFL Picks: Betting Advice for Thursday Night Football

John Ryan

September 28th, 2022 · 2 min read

Two teams that haven't started out as projected will meet in Cincinnati on Thursday as the red-hot Miami Dolphins take on the surprisingly struggling Bengals.

To get you ready for your NFL beting, let's take a look at the Thursday Night preferred best bet.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime 

Line: Bengals -4 | Total:  47 points

The Dolphins (3-0 straight up, 3-0 against the spread, 1-2 Over-Under) and Bengals (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 Over-Under) meet in a game that, despite their records, Cincinnati is favored. 

The intrigue in this matchup starts with the fact that Miami has evolved in short order to become a contender, led by Tua Tagovailoa, the top-ranked quarterback in the NFL based on QB rating+. 

What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share?

A line favoring the Bengals by four points and a total of 47 points implies a Bengals 25.5 to 21.5 win. My predictive model shows a high probability that the Bengals and Dolphins will score fewer than 24 points each in this game.

• The Bengals are 8-23-1 SU and 19-12-1 against the spread (ATS) for 61% winning bets and have a 3-28-1 Over-Under record, good for 90% winning Under bets, in games in which they and their foes each scored 24 or fewer points over the past five seasons.
• The Dolphins are 19-10 SU, 20-9 ATS, and 1-28 Over-Under, good for 97% winning Under bets, in games they and their foes each scored 24 or fewer points over the past five seasons.

I am betting the Under in this matchup currently priced at 47.5 points at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Quick Kicks

Here are some prop bets to consider tonight. We are 14-4 in prop bet picks, making $583 per $50 bet.

• Bet the Dolphins' Jaylen Waddle to score a touchdown +145 at DraftKings.
• Bet the Bengals' Evan McPherson Over 1.5 field goals made -115 at DraftKings.
• Bet the Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa to score a touchdown +650 at BetMGM.
• Bet the Dolphins' Jason Sanders Over 1.5 field goals made +105 at BetMGM.

Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season.