NFL Picks: Betting Advice for Thursday Night Football

Article By John Ryan

Url copied!

John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

Read Full Bio

Last Updated: Mar 14^th, 2024

Two teams that haven't started out as projected will meet in Cincinnati on Thursday as the red-hot Miami Dolphins take on the surprisingly struggling Bengals.

To get you ready for your NFL beting, let's take a look at the Thursday Night preferred best bet.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals

Thursday, 8:15 p.m., Amazon Prime 

Line: Bengals -4 | Total:  47 points

The Dolphins (3-0 straight up, 3-0 against the spread, 1-2 Over-Under) and Bengals (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 Over-Under) meet in a game that, despite their records, Cincinnati is favored. 

The intrigue in this matchup starts with the fact that Miami has evolved in short order to become a contender, led by Tua Tagovailoa, the top-ranked quarterback in the NFL based on QB rating+. 

What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share?

A line favoring the Bengals by four points and a total of 47 points implies a Bengals 25.5 to 21.5 win. My predictive model shows a high probability that the Bengals and Dolphins will score fewer than 24 points each in this game.

• The Bengals are 8-23-1 SU and 19-12-1 against the spread (ATS) for 61% winning bets and have a 3-28-1 Over-Under record, good for 90% winning Under bets, in games in which they and their foes each scored 24 or fewer points over the past five seasons.
• The Dolphins are 19-10 SU, 20-9 ATS, and 1-28 Over-Under, good for 97% winning Under bets, in games they and their foes each scored 24 or fewer points over the past five seasons.

I am betting the Under in this matchup currently priced at 47.5 points at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Quick Kicks

Here are some prop bets to consider tonight. We are 14-4 in prop bet picks, making $583 per $50 bet.

• Bet the Dolphins' Jaylen Waddle to score a touchdown +145 at DraftKings.
• Bet the Bengals' Evan McPherson Over 1.5 field goals made -115 at DraftKings.
• Bet the Dolphins' Tua Tagovailoa to score a touchdown +650 at BetMGM.
• Bet the Dolphins' Jason Sanders Over 1.5 field goals made +105 at BetMGM.

Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season. 

Updated by

Url copied!

John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

Read Full Bio

John Ryan

Last Updated:   Mar 14^th, 2024

Share:

Url copied!