NFL Picks: Betting Advice for Week 1
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Here are some NFL bets I will take to the window and some of them are premium best bets that are released to my private clients.
Tampa Bay at Dallas
Sunday, Noon ET
Line: Bucs -2.5 | Total: 50.5 points
The Buccaneers embark on a season with a 45-year-old quarterback who has seven championship rings. That's more than any team has. And, Tom Brady has his sights set on another title.
There is a simple reason Tampa Bay is favored on the road against Dallas — it is the better team. The Cowboys also seem to have some internal issues and aren't in sync right now. Quarterback Dak Prescott apparently is more concerned with his dislike of his new shoes than he is with the game plan.
What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share?
Given a line favoring the Bucs by 2.5 points and a total of 50.5 points implies a Bucs 26.5-24 win. My predictive model shows a high probability that Tampa will score at least 24 points and have the same or fewer turnovers in this game.
- The Bucs are 29-6 straight up (SU) and 23-10-2 against the spread (ATS) for 70% winning bets when scoring 24 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers than the opponent in the last three seasons.
- The Cowboys are 4-13 SU and 3-14 ATS for 18% winning bets when allowing 24 or more points and having the same or more turnovers than the opponent in games played over the last three seasons.
Supporting Situational Angles
- The Cowboys are 1-9 (ATS) in games lined between the 3’s (between a 3-point favorite and 3-point underdog) in the last three seasons.
- The Bucs are 14-4-1 ATS when the total has been greater than 49.5 points over the last three seasons.
I am betting the Bucs -2.5 points as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
New York Giants at Tennessee
Sunday, 4:25 ET
Line: Titans –5.5 | Total: 44 points
Check out the NFL Betting Angle of the Week video for this matchup. I like the Giants quite a bit and would not be surprised to see them come away with the win on Sunday.
Live Betting Strategy
This is a game that warrants a potential live betting opportunity. To be successful with live betting you must have a detailed strategy in place before the kickoff.
I recommend that you never use the in-game platform to hedge or offset what might look like a poor bet early in the first half of a game because you then bring in greater risk with the potential to lose both bets.
So, in this game, I am going to bet 50% of my normal bet size on the Giants getting 5.5 points pre-flop or before kickoff. Given that the Giants have not been a good team over the past five seasons, I am looking for the Titans to score a touchdown first.
If that happens, the live betting line will be making the Giants about a 9 to 10-point underdog. At that price range, I will execute the remaining 50% of my normal bet amount.
At that point, I have a second bet that wins if the Titans would win by six to nine points, which would offset the first bet losing except for the 10% vig.
I tweet live in-game NFL betting opportunities during the games so ring the bell on my Twitter feed and you never miss an update.
I am betting the Giants +5.5 points as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Other Games I like For Live Betting
Philadelphia Eagles at Detroit Lions
If the Lions score a touchdown first, the Eagles will be lined at about a 2-point favorite. So, bet 50% of your normal bet size before the kick-off and then look to add the remaining 50% during the first half only with the Eagles no more than a 2-point favorite.
Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings
The Packers are favored by 1.5 points. If the Packers are leading at the half, bet the Vikings using the spread knowing that home dogs in Week 1 are 7-1 straight up and ATS since 2012.
These Are My Moneyline Bet Picks
New York Giants (+215) over the Tennessee Titans at DraftKings
San Francisco 49ers (-290) over the Chicago Bears at BetRivers
Atlanta Falcons (+210) over the New Orleans Saints at BetMGM
New England Patriots (+160) over Miami Dolphins at Caesars.
These Are My Over-Under Bet Picks
Under 48.5 Packers at Vikings -110
Over 22 first half Steelers at Bengals -115
Under 53 Chiefs at Cardinals -110
If you want more information on the private client plays simply send me a direct message to my Twitter handle @JohnRyanSports1.
Remember, sports betting is a marathon and not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season. Let’s Go!
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