NFL Picks: Betting Advice for Week 3

Date IconLast Updated: Sep 28th, 2023
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NFL Picks: Betting Advice for Week 3
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Here are some NFL bets I will take to the window and some of them are premium best bets that are released to my private clients, who went 14-2-1 against the spread (ATS) last week in college and NFL best bets.

Last week, I went 1-1 ATS with the top two bets (5-1 ATS season), 2-1 ATS with other games I liked on the board, won with the New England Patriots live in-game bet at +2 points, went 2-1 with the moneyline preferred bets (Dallas Cowboys +300 won, Jacksonville Jaguars +170 won, Carolina Panthers +110 lost), and preferred Over-Under bets went 2-0. 

Let's jump into this week's picks.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Los Angeles Chargers

Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS

Line: Chargers -6.5 | Total: 47 points

The Jaguars (1-1 straight-up (SU), 1-1 against the spread (ATS), 1-1 Over-Under) are a big underdog to the Chargers (1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 0-2 Over-Under) as they travel out west.

Before the start of the preseason, the line opened with the Chargers priced as a 10-point favorite with a total price at 50.5 points.

However, the status of quarterback Justin Herbert, who suffered fractured rib cartilage, is unknown at this time and the line has dropped to the Chargers priced as 6.5-point favorites.

What Do the NFL Predictive Models Have to Share?

A line favoring the Chargers by 6.5 points and a total of 50.5 points suggests the Chargers win 28.5 to 22. 

My predictive model shows a high probability that the Chargers and Jaguars will both score 22 or more points and is not dependent on whether Herbert starts.

  • The Chargers are 7-6 SU and 3-9-1 against the spread (ATS) for 25% winning bets, including a 12-1 Over-Under record, good for 92% winning bets in home games and both they and their opponents score 22 or more points in games played over the last five seasons.
  • The Jaguars are 2-9 SU, 4-6 ATS, and 10-1 Over-Under, good for 91% winning Over bets, in road games and both they and their opponent have scored 22 or more points in games played over the last five seasons.
  • The Jaguars are 4-15 SU and 5-14 ATS, including 13-4-2 Over the posted total, following a game in which they had a +3 turnover advantage over the past 20 seasons.

I am betting the Over in this matchup, priced at 50.5 points at BetMGM Sportsbook.


San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

Line: 49ers –1.5 | Total: 44 points

The Broncos were in serious trouble of losing to the Houston Texans priced as 10-point home favorites until Russell Wilson dialed up a game-winning drive that included a 35-yard dart to WR Courtland Sutton, converting a third-and-16 situation. 

The 33-year-old Wilson still has the talent to lead his teams to come-from-behind wins, but he will be facing a 49ers squad that is better than the Texans.

The Broncos have hurt themselves with 10 penalties in each of their first two games, which is the most since Jacksonville in the 2018 season. 

San Francisco has gained 365 rushing yards through two games, which is the most since 1998 and ranks second this season in the NFL behind the Cleveland Browns. 

However, this is not all good news for the 49ers. Teams in Week 3 that outgained its two previous opponents by more than 200 rushing yards have produced a 23-16 SU record for 59% wins, 14-25 ATS for 36% winning bets, and 16-23 Over-Under record good for 59% winning Under bets.

A Highly Profitable NFL Situational Betting Angle

Betting on favorites using the moneyline in a non-conference matchup and coming off a win over a divisional foe has earned a 51-8 record, good for 86% winning bets over the past five seasons.

I am betting the 49ers using the moneyline, -120 at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Other Games I like Against the Spread

  • Bet on the Washington Commanders +6.5 hosting the Philadelphia Eagles
  • Bet the Detroit Lions +6 at the Minnesota Vikings
  • Bet the Atlanta Falcons +1 at the Seattle Seahawks


Games I like For Live Betting

  • Chiefs -6.5 at the Colts

The Colts are 0-2 and desperately need a win, so they might come out in front of their home fans and score a touchdown on their opening drive. If they score first, I like betting the Chiefs at an expected price as a -3.5 favorite.

  • Bengals -6 at the Jets.

If the Bengals, who are 0-2 on the season, score a touchdown first, then I like the Jets at a price of +10 or higher.

These Are My Moneyline Bet Picks

  • Bet the Lions (+180) using the first half moneyline at the Vikings (-220)
  • Bet the 49ers (-110) using the first half moneyline at the Broncos (+100)
  • Bet the Panthers (+115) using the first half moneyline at the Saints (-140)

These Are My Over-Under Bet Picks

  • Eagles at Commanders Under 55.5 -110
  • Colts at Chiefs Over 50.5 -110
  • Jaguars at Chargers Under 52 -110

These Are My Best Prop Bets Picks

For the season, player prop bets are 4-2, making $143 per $50 bet.

  • Bet the Commanders J.D. McKissic Over 3.5 receptions -115 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Eagles Jalen Hurts Over 30.5 passes -119 at Caesars.
  • Bet the Jaguars Trevor Lawrence Over 247.5 passing yards -104 at Caesars.
  • Bet the Falcons Kyle Pitts Over 46.5 reception yards -110 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Seahawks Jason Myers Over 1.5 extra points made -175 at Caesars.
  • Bet the Vikings Adam Thielen Over 4.5 receptions +120 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Lions Jared Goff Over 1.5 touchdowns -110 at BetMGM.

Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season. Let’s Go!