NFL Picks: Betting Advice & Predictions for Week 4

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NFL Picks: Betting Advice & Predictions for Week 4

Here are some NFL bets I will take to the window this weekend. 

I've gotten off to a good start with my NFL picks and currently sit in first place in the Gridiron staff picks contest with an 18-2 ATS record for 90% winners

On to Week 4 of the 2022 NFL season.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Line: Eagles -6.5 | Total: 45.5 points

The Jaguars (2-1 straight-up, 2-1 against the spread, 1-2 Over-Under) take on the Eagles (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS, 1-2 Over-Under) at Lincoln Financial Field. 

The line opened with the Eagles favored by seven points, and steady action backing the Jaguars has moved that to 6.5 points. The total opened at 48.5 points and has since slipped to 45.5 because of concerns about the weather.

The matchup is pitting two teams with similar characteristics and strengths. The Jaguars rank fourth in scoring defense, allowing 12.7 points per game, and the Eagles rank seventh, allowing 16.7 PPG. Jacksonville ranks eighth with a .412 points per play ratio, and the Eagles rank seventh with a .413.

The Eagles are coming off a 24-8 road win over the Washington Commanders, and they sacked former Eagles quarterback Carsen Wentz nine times. 

Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence doesn't hold the ball as long as Wentz. He averaged less than two seconds per pass in last week’s 38-10 win over the Los Angeles Chargers. 

So, the Eagles' pass rush will not be a dominant factor in this matchup and Lawrence’s near-perfect accuracy could pick apart the Eagles' coverage schemes.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Over in this matchup.

  • Home favorites coming off a game in which they sacked the opposing quarterback eight or more times have seen the Over produce a 29-22-1 record for 57% winning bets.
  • Home favorites between 3.5 and 9.5 points that are coming off a win in which they allowed 10 or fewer points and have scored 17 or fewer points in the second of their last three games, have seen the Over earn a 22-9 record, good for 71% winning Over bets.

I am betting the Over in this matchup, currently priced at 45.5 points at BetMGM.

Buffalo Bills at Baltimore Ravens

Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS

Line: Bills -3 | Total: 51 points

The Buffalo Bills are coming off an extremely tough 21-19 road loss to the Miami Dolphins in a game where they ran 51 more offensive plays and had the ball for over 41 minutes. They ran 90 plays to the Dolphins' 39 and still lost. 

The last time a team ran 50 or more plays than their opponent and lost was in 2002 when the Pittsburgh Steelers lost at home 24-6 to the Houston Texans and failed to cover the spread by 32 points installed as 14-point favorites.

A Highly Profitable Situational Betting Angle

Betting on favorites that are facing an opponent that has seen the Over exceeded by a combined 35 or more points over their last three games has earned a 47-13-1 ATS record, good for 78% winning bets over the past five seasons.

I am betting the Buffalo Bills -3 points at BetMGM.

Other Games I like Against the Spread

Bet on the LA Rams +1 at the San Francisco 49ers

Bet the LA Raiders -2.5 hosting the Denver Broncos

Bet the Detroit Lions -4 hosting the Seattle Seahawks

Games I like For Live Betting

Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles

I like the Jaguars and Eagles to play Over the posted total as detailed above and I see this matchup as a back-and-forth scoring affair. 

So, this game is a betting opportunity to create a sizable ‘middle’ opportunity by betting on both teams during the first half. Whichever team scores first, preferably a touchdown, consider betting the other team with the live in-game line. 

So, if the Jaguars score a touchdown on their first possession and take a 7-0 lead, bet the live line on the Eagles at -2.5 or fewer points. Then look to add the Jaguars bet at any price at 9.5 or more during the first half. So, an Eagles straight-up win by between three and nine points, both bets will cash.

New England Patriots at Green Bay Packers

If the Patriots score a touchdown first, bet the Packers at -7 or fewer points during the first half only.

These Are My Moneyline Bet Picks

Bet the Vikings (-165) using the moneyline at the Saints (+150)

Bet the Lions (-160) using the first half moneyline over the Seahawks (+150)

Bet the Cowboys (-160) using the moneyline at home against the Commanders (+140)

These Are My Over-Under Bet Picks

Over Titans at Colts 42.5 -110

Over Browns at Falcons 47.5 -110

Over Jets at Steelers 41.5 -110

These Are My Best Prop Bets Picks

For the season, player prop bets are 16-6, making $586 per $50 bet.

  • Bet the Rams' Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 passing touchdowns -140 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the 49ers' Jimmy Garoppolo over 28.5 passes -130 at Caesars.
  • Bet the Eagles' Jalen Hurts Over 1.5 passing touchdowns +105 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Jaguars' Trevor Lawrence Over 1.5 passing touchdowns +133 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott Over 56.5 rushing yards -110 at BetMGM.

Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season.

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