NFL Picks: Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

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NFL Picks: Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
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Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams

Bills -2.5 | O/U 50.5 points

So-Fi Stadium, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

Over the past 20 seasons, the reigning Super Bowl Champion is 17-3 straight-up (SU) and 13-6-1 against-the-spread (ATS) including a 9-9-2 Over-Under result in Week 1. 

So, how does this shape up for your NFL betting for Opening Night?

The Rams are priced as home dogs and that's the fourth time in the past 20 seasons the defending champs are the underdog in the opener. 

In four games of the champ priced as the underdogs, they have gone 3-1 SU and ATS and 2-1-1 Over-Under.

The 2015-16 Denver Broncos were the last team to be a dog in their first game and they defeated the visiting Carolina Panthers 21-20 as 3-point home dogs. 

In 2003, the New England Patriots were 2.5 point underdogs and defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers 30-14 in their opening game.

Should You Bet the Super Bowl Champions in Their 1st Two Home Games?

The results are profitable when betting on the reigning Super Bowl champion in their first two home games of the following season.

Those teams have gone 16-2 SU and 12-5-1 ATS for 71% winning bets including an 8-8-2 Over-Under record. 

The Rams play at home in Week 2 hosting the Atlanta Falcons and are currently favored by 13.5 or more points.

What are the Betting Markets Telling Us?

The line for this matchup opened with the Rams installed as one-point home dogs. The betting community has become enamored with the Bills, forcing the line higher to a current price making the Rams a 2.5-point underdog. 

Do your shopping to get the best possible NFL betting odds. Caesars, BetRivers, and FanDuel are the sportsbooks offering the Rams at +2.5 points. 

DraftKings, BetMGM, and BetOnline are offering the Rams at +2 points. 

I believe these books will move in the overall market direction to price the Rams as 2.5-point dogs.

I like betting on the Rams as a 2.5-point home underdog.


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